Things seems to be lining up for D.C. United. With a ten point cushion for first place in the Eastern Conference and a two week break looming after next Friday, the club appears to have weathered the schedule glut and the injury bug. But a lot can change in a week and a trap game looms on the horizon on Saturday night when they travel to BMO Field to take on Toronto FC (7PM EST Comcast SportsNET in D.C. and TSN in Canada).
If one were to look solely Toronto’s record they would not get a favorable impression. Although the club is in fourth place in the Eastern Conference and looking like they might finally make the playoffs for the first time in their club’s history, Toronto does have a record of 7-6-1 and just a goal differential of plus 3.
But the numbers are a little deceiving when looking TFC’s recent run of form. Led by midfielder Michael Bradley and forward Sebastian Giovinco, TFC have lost just three times in their last ten matches (6-3-1, 19 points). The disparity in play seems to stem from the fact that the club did not play their first match at BMO Field until May the 10th due to work being done on the pitch.
That being said, United have never had trouble going north of the border and playing TFC. In their eleven meetings at BMO Field all-time, United have seven wins compared to TFC’s four. TFC have had a better run of form against United as of late, winning two of their last three matches against D.C. in Canada.
This is also a very different TFC squad. For years TFC management have swung and missed at big name players who were brought in to change the club’s fortunes. None of them worked until the club picked up Sebastian Giovinco, Michael Bradley, and Jozy Altidore (8 goals). Of the three, it is Giovinco that has perhaps had the biggest impact. The Atomic Ant has scored 8 goals with the club this year and provided them the emotional lift late when in the past the club might have wilted.
D.C. United should be well aware of his talents as he scored a brace against them at RFK Stadium two weeks ago. Where Giovinco thrives is by making the diagonal run aimed at disrupting the communication between the outside and center-backs. His speed was certainly a concern for United in match one and will be a concern for right-back Sean Franklin in match two. But it is his passing and understanding of his place on the pitch that opens up the field for Altidore to come in and bury his chance. United center-back Steve Birnbaum must not be fooled into the Giovinco distraction and maintain good tracking on Altidore otherwise United will get burned.
Bradley scored highly in the Netherlands
Bradley should also concern the United defense. After a year of re-adjusting to the style of MLS, Bradley finally seems comfortable at orchestrating TFC’s attack. Not as much is being asked of him this year in terms of goals although his 27 shots and 2 goals show he is not certainly afraid. But Bradley’s role is simple: thread balls into Giovinco and Altidore and let them work their magic. It might not show up in the score-sheet but it is an important facet of setting up an attack.
He should look at the Chicago Fire’s work on the left flank against United on Wednesday night to get an idea on how to break down D.C. United’s back four has proven that they can handle teams that have a very straightforward attacking style. But when asked to act quickly they struggle. Although the goal was disallowed, Joevin Jones’ through-ball in the 37th minute to Kennedy Igboannanike provides the perfect example on how to break down D.C.’s defense.
The one concern that Toronto should have is United on the counter-attack. United coach Ben Olsen will likely employ a very conservative style given the team’s injuries (Michael Farfan, Chris Pontius, and Sean Franklin are all out) and cramped schedule (this will be their third match in a week and have two more games next week). Olsen has been using a 4-5-1 with either Jairo Arrieta (5 goals) or Fabian Espindola (1 goal) up top and will likely do so for this match as well.
That does not mean that the club will not have their chances. United’s defensive midfield combination of Perry Kitchen and Markus Halsti like to jump-start the counter through pin-point crosses leaving either Arrieta, Espindola, or midfielder Chris Rolfe-forward (6 goals) to work and create their own opportunities in space. It is not the prettiest system but it has proven to be effective during the 2015 campaign.
TFC is not exactly known for their defending (19 goals conceded) so if D.C. can get an early goal they might be able to squeak away with a point in this match. But with TFC being in such great form right now and United in the middle of a difficult schedule this might just be a match where their patchwork style will not hold up.
