By Toby Dunkelberg and Steven Agen
The Copa America Centenario Quarterfinals kick off on Thursday night, with Group A winners USA taking on Group B runners-up Ecuador in Seattle, Washington. After facing the prospect of a match against Brazil in New York, the Yankees are buzzing at the chance to play in front of a highly partisan crowd at CenturyLink Field. In a city that has developed a reputation for fervent soccer support, the game is being billed as perhaps the largest it has ever hosted.
USA managed to win their group after Colombia, ranked third in the world according to FIFA, dropped their last group stage game 3-2 to Costa Rica. The result was one of the biggest upsets of the tournament so far, and it allowed USA to sneak past los Cafeteros on goal difference and win Group A. Jurgen Klinsmann and his charges did their part by posting victories against Costa Rica (4-0) and Paraguay (1-0) after Colombia handed them a 2-0 loss to start the competition. Many thought the prize for winning the group would be avoiding Brazil in the quarterfinals. Thanks in part to the efforts of Ecuador, that didn’t turn out to be necessary.
La Tricolor took the runner-up spot in Group B while maintaining an undefeated record. At 1-0-2 (5 points) Ecuador are one of five remaining unbeatens, drawing Brazil (0-0) and Peru (2-2) before demolishing Haiti 4-0 in their final group stage game. Continental powerhouse Brazil’s flaming exit from the tournament headlined the news on Group B. They dropped a vital 1-0 result to Peru in their last group stage match to finish below Ecuador on 4 points. Peru’s goal came on a controversial missed handball call. It also gave them their first win over Brazil since 1985, highlighting the magnitude of the upset. A 0-0 draw would have been enough to send Brazil through as group winners. Ecuador assured themselves of a place in the Quarterfinals by registering a win of more than one goal in the Haiti game; regardless of the outcome of the Brazil-Peru game, Ecuador’s 5 points and +4 goal differential would have seen them advance at the expense of Peru in the event of a three way tie at the top of the group.
Ecuador utilized quick wide play and a stingy defense to advance to the Quarterfinals. Attacking talents Jefferson Montero and Antonio Valencia provide a speed threat the likes of which the USA have not yet seen this tournament, even if they did see it a pre-competition friendly with la tri. Darlington Nagbe won that match for USA with a late volley but the intensity of a Copa America Quarterfinal will likely bring out a far more determined Ecuadorian effort. Their speed threat reminds us that USA will only advance as far as their last-ditch clearances on counters take them.
Seattle soccer legend Alan Hinton weighed in on USA’s formation- “Whatever anybody tells you about the system, everybody’s saying 4-3-3, and 4-4-2. They’re playing four at the back, they’re playing four in the midfield. Wood is up the front, and Dempsey’s in behind him. So the system is easy to see for a pro like me. They’re playing 4-4-1-1 and it’s effective. And everybody’s giving their best and the energy level [is good].”
While the formation may be clear enough, the solution to DeAndre Yedlin’s suspension is not. With Yedlin out due to a brash red card in the Paraguay match, Jurgen Klinsmann has a conundrum on his hands. The most like for like replacement would be to swap in fellow right back Michael Orozco. Orozco did well against Paraguay but in the few times he was tested looked to be a step slow in reacting to the speed of the game. Klinsmann has another option but it comes at the cost of the backline chemistry that the US has done so much to preserve. Thursday could see Monterrey’s Edgar Castillo line up at left back left back pushing Fabian Johnson over to the right. The later might put slightly more talent out on the field but Castillo remains largely untested on the international stage while Orozco’s logged a few starts at center back. Klinsmann always a tough coach to predict but this late in a tournament he’ll most likely stick with who he knows and opt to do the like for like replacement and have Orozco start.
Whatever the case, Ecuador will be sure to try and exploit the weak side in an attack that already heavily relies on flank play. Expect the midfield four from USA to take a defensive posture to start the match, compensating for Yedlin and trying to keep Ecuador in front of them. USA will rely on the consistency in the lineup (outside of Yedlin) and the form of Clint Dempsey to try and down the #13-ranked team in the world.
The most important challenge on home soil in a long while awaits USA on Thursday night. Can they ride the energy of the crowd to the Copa America Centenario Semifinals?
SCORE PREDICTION
USA 1, Ecuador 0
Dempsey (Bradley) 68′
