Labour and the Conservative parties enter into election day with one poll putting them in a direct heat for both votes and seats.
Polling organisation YouGov polled over 10,000 people and the parties at 34% each and both on course to win 276 seats. The Scottish Nationalists are predicated to win 51 and the Liberal Democrats are set to win a disappointing 23.
If this happened, the current governing coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats would only have 299 MPs, significantly short of the 326 needed to resume power.
A second poll conducted by Panelbase of 3019 people though has Labour two points ahead, 33% to 31%. UKIP are polling surprisingly high at 16% with the Conservatives being the larger source of votes for them.
A third poll by TNS puts the Conservatives just ahead.
Sky News forecasted 281 Conservative MPs, 271 Labour and 55 for the SNP which will leave the current government unable to form a majority.
Meanwhile debate about what happens next is ramping up with some spectacular backsliding from previous positions.
With the majority of polls predicting a narrow Conservative lead in MPs, ex-Labour Cabinet Secretary Lord O’Donnell claimed that having the most MPs gives you no special privileges or rights, and it is the party that can form a majority (with other parties) that forms a government. He oversaw the negotiations after the 2010 election and should know what he is talking about.
This is the exact opposite of what his party had been claiming in Scotland throughout the campaign where they hoped to use fear of the Conservatives to stop the hemorrhaging of Labour votes to the SNP.
Labour’s “simple fact” said the party with most MPs automatically formed the government
Scottish Labour’s “simple fact” was never true.
Lord O’Donnell is correct.
Meanwhile the Conservative newspapers are prematurely trying to de-legitimize any possible Labour government by claiming that having the most MPs gives you the right to continue as PM. Even though his feral allies in the newspapers may continue this narrative, it is not true and once Ed Milliband is seen at the doorway of 10 Downing Street will cease to have much traction.
David Cameron does in fact get the first crack at forming the government but only because he is the sitting PM. If he cannot do so, the obligation and the right falls to Labour to form a government regardless of how many less seats they won than the Conservatives.
The onus is then on Labour to work with other parties till they crawl over the 326 votes line. No polls indicate they can do that without the SNP. Labour leader Ed Milliband however backed himself into a corner by saying he would not deal with them.
Still, up to 21% of voters say they are undecided. That number is higher in England where most of the key Tory/Labour marginals lie. Most psephologists will tell you that late deciders swing 2-1 in favour of the incumbents, which is encouraging for the Conservatives.
There is less good news for them in the sky though.
The weather forecast is very good for Thursday which usually means a higher turnout. Higher turnouts benefit parties whose support is younger and hampers those parties which rely on older voters, as they tend to vote in all weathers or have already voted by mail.
This is potentially good news for Labour and Greens in England and the SNP in Scotland and bad for the Conservatives everywhere.
Previous Articles:
UK Election: Labour’s bold gamble; a second election?
UK Election: Daily Telegraph caught rigging its own voter guide
UK Election: Labour & Conservatives level. What happens if nobody wins?
UK Election – a Guide to the Parties
