On May 7, the United Kingdom will go to the polls and vote in their next government.
We will try and keep you up to date on the twists and turns in the campaign as Polling Day approaches, but here is the backdrop and a guide to the parties.
How to win a UK Election
The UK is divided into 650 constituencies, known colloquially as seats. Each elects one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons by a system known as First Past the Post (FPTP). The candidate with the most votes becomes the MP whether he gets all of them or 1/4 of them, as long as he has more than anybody else. This system is of course used in US federal elections though at state level some demand a runoff until a candidate has 50% of the vote.
This system can, and usually does, result in a highly disproportionate outcome where the number of seats won bears little relation to the number of votes the party got.
To have an overall majority in the House of Commons, you need to win 326 seats theoretically. In practice, this is 323 as one of the Northern Irish parties does not take its seats in the UK Parliament. If any party does, it has an outright majority and its party leader becomes Prime Minister.
Of the 650 constituencies, 533 are in England, 59 are in Scotland, 40 are in Wales and 18 are in Northern Ireland. This actually matters as Scotland has an increasingly diverse voting party from England, and Northern Ireland seats are contested by local parties who very rarely take part in the UK government, but do sit and vote in the House.
Who are the runners and riders?
There are seven main parties who matter in this election, excluding the separate parties who stand only in Northern Ireland.
1. The Conservative Party
The Conservative Party (aka the Tories) is one of the most successful democratic political parties in the free world, having spent more years in power and won more elections than most others. It have been in existence since 1834.
The ability to modernise where necessary and move with the times has been the hallmark of the centre-right party’s ability to keep power, despite generally supporting the interests of the wealthy and the business community. It has the support of most of the mainstream newspapers.
It is roughly the equivalent of the US Republican Party except it shies away from social issues, homophobia, and religion to focus on economic issues. It supports free universal healthcare as do all the parties, and would really be seen as fairly liberal if it stood in the USA.
Its leader David Cameron is the current Prime Minister. He has promised that cuts in the UK’s welfare budget are coming if he wins as the country struggles with debt. The Conservative Party did not win an outright majority in 2010 but formed a coalition with the Liberals to form an overall majority. Contrary to many dire predictions, that coalition remained intact throughout the five years of the Parliament.
2. The Labour Party
Labour are the Official Opposition and the only other party likely to attain an overall majority or provide the Prime Minister.
Originally formed to represent the working class after universal suffrage, the party moved to the centre under Tony Blair who was rewarded with three election wins. Their new leader is Ed Milliband who has made few errors on the campaign trail but is neither dynamic nor personally captivating. He trails Cameron in personal poll ratings but his party have been level or slightly ahead in most opinion polls, and generally fares better than he does.
Labour is very competitive in London outside the wealthiest suburbs and has a vice- like grip on much of the urban north of England and south Wales. It still struggles to be competitive in rural constituencies where the Liberals mostly represent the Tory alternative.
Labour is polling well in England and would be sleep walking to a big win were it not for its unprecedented meltdown in Scotland where it currently holds 41 of the 59 seats. Labour’s role in the campaign against Scottish independence has caused a massive backlash among its core supporters, who disliked seeing them campaign alongside Conservatives. Milliband’s threat to put armed guards at the border if Scotland said Yes probably didn’t help either.
No UK-wide poll has shown either major party being anywhere close to an overall majority, which means they would have to seek a coalition with a smaller party along the lines of the existing Con/Lib coalition.
This may be to Labour’s advantage as its list of potential allies is somewhat longer than the Conservatives.
3. The Liberal Democrats
Led by Nick Clegg, they formed a coalition after the 2010 election with the Tories and got only their second taste of peacetime government for nearly a century.
However their 2010 result of 57 seats was created with the support of many ex-Labour voters who believed the Liberals to be progressive. The alliance with the Tories will cost them dearly this time round as those voters look set to abandon the Liberals, due to a perceived breaking of pre-election promises such as on university tuition fees and low personal ratings for Clegg.
However many of their MPs have strong personal support within their constituencies and may just hold on, bucking the national trend. If the party holds on to enough seats, they could be kingmakers with either major party an option for them. Ideologically, they may still be more comfortable with Labour but it may be a case of better the devil you know.
Should their seats and the Conservatives break the 323 mark though, expect the current coalition to continue unless somehow the right wing and anti-European United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) starts to win seats in sufficient number.
The Liberals are staunchly pro-European and would not countenance being in any coalition that UKIP is part of.
Conservative Party leader David Cameron. (No – this photo was not photoshopped)
4. United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)
UKIP’s flagship policy is to withdraw the UK from the European Union.
It currently has just 2 MPS but both were MPs who won as Tories in 2010 and then defected. Their leader Nigel Farage seemed to have a charismatic edge but that has recently been blunted by dog whistle anti-immigrant soundbytes in TV debates and greater scrutiny on individual UKIP candidates, some of whom have done or said embarrassing things in the past.
As May 7 approaches, their poll numbers are dipping and this has allowed the Tory party and their media allies to pander a little less to jingoism and get on with bashing Labour on the economy and Milliband’s perceived lack of leadership qualifications. Still, UKIP may take enough votes in some key marginal seats to deprive the Conservatives of the seat and hand them to Labour.
UKIP does represent one stripe of the current anti-establishment anger in the wake of series of scandals among the major parties. Cameron’s promise of a referendum on European Union membership if he wins does seem to have stolen much of UKIP’s thunder. They seem unlikely to make an impact as they did two months ago when poll ratings showed them up at 15-17%.
5. The Green Party
The Greens have one MP currently, in a studenty seat in the town of Brighton. They are the main left of centre party in England after the Liberals joined the Tory coalition and Labour swang right. Environmentally conscious and pro-welfare, there are just a couple more seats where they may stand a chance of being elected. Imagine Ralph Nader without the ego and you may get some idea of the Green Party which is autonomous in each of the four UK Countries.
However, a good percentage showing in the vote may remind the new government that environmental issues are still important to the public. They also provide left wing voters in England who are thoroughly brassed off with the rightward drift of Labour somewhere to go, though probably not in sufficient numbers to cost Labour any seats.
6. Scottish National Party
This party stands in Scotland only and its main purpose is to campaign for Scotland to leave the UK and become independent. However a referendum on independence was lost last September and now the SNP is left still campaigning for seats in the UK Parliament. With many issues now devolved to the Scottish Parliament, the SNP platform is focused on resisting cuts in public spending and opposing the renewal of Trident, as well as more powers for the existing Scottish Parliament. Health and education spending in Scotland are not under UK control so those issues are not relevant to thsi election.
Their current poll numbers are at an historic high as Labour voters, furious with the party holding the Tories’ hands in the anti-independence campaign, desert Labour and transfer their allegiance to the SNP. Some polls suggest they could win 50 of the 59 Scottish seats. Most of them say around 40.
If so, they will not assist the Conservatives back into power under any circumstances but may work with Milliband to give him the keys to 10 Downing Street, the Prime Minister’s official residence.
7. Plaid Cymru – the Party of Wales
Plaid are the Welsh equivalent of the SNP. However, they are not experiencing the same highs as their Scottish counterparts in the polls and are likely to stay on 3 seats, despite the charismatic leadership of Leanne Wood. Those three seats could still be a vital part of any coalition though. A left wing party, they would never put the Conservatives in and they are unlikely to join a Labour coalition while the SNP are excluded.
Wales is the only country that looks remotely like England in its voting patterns.
Northern Ireland
The main parties do not contest the 18 seats in Northern Ireland or do so on a half-hearted basis. The parties here are mostly divided on a sectarian headcount with Unionist Parties campaigning among themselves for the Protestant vote and Irish Nationalist Parties doing the same for the Catholic vote. Only the Alliance Party, with currently one MP, has any pretensions of being cross-community.
One party, Sinn Fein, does not take its seats in the UK parliament which means that 323 rather than 326 may be needed for that majority. The Unionist Parties who will finish with somewhere around ten seats are the only party from the Celtic fringes that would even consider allying with the Tories.
In the next installment, we’ll examine what the polls are telling us, and where the election will be won and lost.
