The results showed a large drop in support for the Liberal Democrats
The Conservative Party have won the 2015 UK election with a surprise late surge. They finished with 330 (not including the Speaker) MPs out of the 650, enough to ensure a majority in the House of Commons.
On the popular vote, the Conservatives shot to 36.9% and Labour finished with 30.4%. The 6.5% difference was far away from the eve of vote polls which showed a dead heat.
If that was a shock, there was a seismic shift in Scotland where the Scottish National Party swept all before them taking 56 of the 59 seats and half the vote. Labour lost all but one of their 41 Scottish MPs.
It was a disastrous night for Labour and the Liberal Democrats who were left with just 8 seats from 7.9% of the vote, a drop from 23%. Before the election, they had 57 MPs.
The first indication of the surprises to come arrived when the Broadcasters (BBC, ITV and Sky News) released their Exit Poll. It was announced at 10pm UK time when the polling stations closed and showed a far larger than thought Conservative showing.
| Broadcasters Poll | Yougov Poll |
| Conservative: 316 seats | 284 seats |
| Labour: 239 | 263 |
| Liberal Democrat: 10 | 31 |
| UKIP: 2 | 2 |
| SNP: 58 | 48 |
| Greens: 2 | 2 |
| Plaid Cymru: 4 | 2 |
| Others: 19 | 18 |
In a shock prediction in the first exit poll, the Conservatives (316 seats) were to have enough to see an overall majority either with their Liberal allies or even with assorted Northern Ireland Unionists. The poll also predicts the SNP to win 58 seats, all but one in Scotland, up from 6.
239 seats would be Labour’s worst result since 1987. In the end they didn’t even make that number.
As the night went on, it became clear the Broadcasters’ poll, had if anything, underestimated the Liberal Democrats’ slump and Labour’s failure to win key marginal seats from the Conservatives.
So the Conservatives how have a mandate to rule for the next five years. Despite their surprise victories, two problems lie immediately to be tackled. They promised to call a referendum on the UK membership of the European Union. That may split their parliamentary party. Their second problem is Scotland. If they ignore the wishes of large SNP contingent, they trigger a second independence referendum and end the Union.
For Labour and the LibDems, internal rebuilding and electing new leaders is their next task.
Previous articles:
UK Election: Parties in dead heat on eve of poll
UK Election: Labour’s bold gamble; a second election?
UK Election: Daily Telegraph caught rigging its own voter guide
UK Election: Labour & Conservatives level. What happens if nobody wins?
UK Election – a Guide to the Parties
