By Eric Krakauer
According to most of the soccer punditry, Poland will defeat Portugal tomorrow and move on to the semifinals of Euro 2016.
You can’t really blame them. While Poland has not yet shown the kind of football that they are capable of, and that has earned them the tag of tournament dark horse, their performances in the group stage did evidence a balanced squad that may be on the verge of gelling.
Portugal, on the other hand, only just made it to the knockout rounds, having become the only team to ever advance from a group without winning a single game. Their toothless defeat of Croatia also left many believing that the Portuguese are just riding their luck.
Still, writing the Portuguese off is a mistake. After all, despite the manner in which it happened, they still beat Croatia, and Poland have not shown that they’re a better team.
Here are two reasons Portugal will beat Poland.
- Cristiano Ronaldo’s new role
The most prevalent narrative about Portugal is that the Portuguese are a one-man team. Ronaldo plus ten, is the frequent utterance. I’m not going to argue against that assessment because there is a lot of truth to it. However, the tendency to resort to that description neglects the fact that as the tournament has progressed, we have begun to see a different Ronaldo.
Now 31, Ronaldo does not have the same explosiveness that he once did. Where he used to be a player capable of easily getting past defenders on the dribble, the captain has had to adapt his game, and become closer to what we would call a 9. It has been a little difficult for Ronaldo to come to terms with this new reality. Against Iceland, the Real Madrid player was often out of position and forced himself into almost every attacking situation. His stubbornness cost the team, and against Austria we began to see a shift in his play.
Against Hungary, the transition was complete. Ronaldo spent most of the game holding up the ball, allowing Portugal’s midfielders to be more involved in the team’s attacking processes, and his runs into the box were a nightmare for Hungarian defenders. His two goals in that game, as well as his overall contribution, were enough to convince Ronaldo that Portugal will only move on if he becomes the box player the small nation has sorely missed since Eusebio. If he continues to fulfill his new role against Poland, it is hard to imagine how the Polish defense will neutralize the mercurial forward.
- A much improved defense
I’m sure the three goals Hungary scored against Portugal was the first thing that popped into you heads after reading my second reason. Yes, Portugal’s defense did look suspect in that game. Nevertheless, while Zoltan Gera’s goal was a beauty of a strike, the two that Balazs Dzsudzsak scored were less about accuracy than good fortune.
That game was an outlier for the Portuguese, who have defended well throughout the rest of the tournament. Improved defending has arguably been Fernando Santos’ biggest contribution to the Portuguese set-up. His club coaching career hinged upon it, and let’s not forget that this is a man who took over Greece after years of catenaccio style defending under German, Otto Rehhagel.
There are a number of reasons why the Portuguese have begun to defend better with Santos at the helm. But the main reason may be that Portugal finally has two strongmen who can anchor the midfield in front of the back four. Danilo and William Carvalho are two physically imposing defensive midfielders who are equally adept at shouldering opponents off the ball, as they are with it at their feet. William has been particularly impressive since clinching a starting spot in the second group game against Austria. He will most likely be the starter when Portugal faces Poland, tomorrow, and could be the key player in a midfield that will certainly have its fair share of gritty challenges.
Prediction
Portugal 2-1 Poland
Also see:
Efficiency in face of goal could push Poland past Portugal in Euro quarterfinals
