Timbers vs Rapids Preview by Chris Brown
There are only two match days left in the 2016 Major League Soccer regular season and Sunday afternoon sees the Supporters Shield leading Colorado Rapids travel to Providence Park to take on 2016’s MLS Cup Champions, Portland Timbers.
These sides met for the first time on July 4th and battled to a 0-0 draw. (Photo Credit: Corbin Elliott)
These two teams have met twice before in 2016, a July 4th scoreless draw and a 1-0 Rapids win on October 1st, both of those matches taking place at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in Colorado.
The venue might be the key in deciding who takes away points this weekend. Colorado have been sensational at home this season, the Rapids are the only team in MLS who have yet to lose at home, boasting a record of 11-0-5 when playing a mile above sea level, and the effect the altitude has on opponents cannot be understated.
Portland have also been strong at home in 2016, with a record of 11-3-2 when playing in front of Timber Joey and the Timber’s Army. There aren’t a whole lot of home field advantages in MLS as profound as Providence Park, especially when the Timbers playoff hopes depend on the Timbers taking three points from this match.
Last time out for Colorado Kevin Doyle made his return to action following an ankle injury that kept him out for over a month. Doyle played, surprisingly, in the number ten role for the Rapids and was instrumental in Colorado’s 2-1 win over San Jose on Thursday night, scoring twice and helping the Rapids take the lead in the Supporter’s Shield standings.
Kevin Doyle scored twice for Colorado on Thursday night and will be the danger man for the Rapids. (Photo Credit: Corbin Elliott)
Sam Cronin was suspended for the match due to yellow card accumulation, but should feature on Sunday. With Cronin back in the line up expect him to play along side Michael Azira in a holding role with Dillon Powers back in the ten role and Doyle leading the line once again. When things go well for Colorado Pablo Mastroeni tends to reward his side by keeping things the same, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see Doyle playing behind Badji once again, especially since the two forwards had great chemistry playing together on Thursday night.
Portland’s last match was away, at Colorado on Saturday, October 1st, which means that Caleb Porter has had two full weeks to prepare his side to take on Colorado. In the first half of that match Portland was unlucky not to score at least once. Diego Valeri was simply too much for the Colorado defense to handle and consistently popped up with the ball in dangerous situations. Twice in the first half Tim Howard was forced into saves after Valeri sent screaming shots at the Rapids goal.
With a playoff spot being the main focus for Timbers fans there is still an added bit of motivation for Portland. Sunday will see Jack Jewsbury play his final home match for Portland before he retires at the end of the season. Two weeks ago Jewsbury played in his 350th MLS match, only the tenth player in MLS history to reach that milestone. When the 14 year veteran announced his retirement to the crowd at Providence Park there were chants of “one more year” from Timber’s Army, now it’s time for one more game in front of the green wall, it would be a fitting scene to see Jewsbury leave Providence with a victory.
For a more in depth look at Portland Timbers this Sunday and at the end of the season I was fortunate enough to visit Prost Amerika’s Portland beat writer and editor, Matt Hoffman:
Chris Brown: The Rapids defense is good. Very good. The two times Colorado and Portland played this season the Timbers were shut out both times. What does Caleb Porter change to unlock the Rapid defense?
Matt Hoffman: At the risk of nit-picking,it’s important to remember that both of those matches were in Colorado. Portland has been horrible on the road, especially as of late. You have to go back to early July for the last time Portland earned a point on the road. Some say it’s been a historically bad years for road teams. Others, being that the Timbers are the reigning MLS Cup winners, say that Portland is getting every team’s best shot.
Regardless, Portland is not only winless on the road, but no other club has scored fewer goals away from home (12) than the Timbers. Playing in the Rose City meanwhile, Portland has scored 34 goals and is one of four teams with double-digit home wins (11).
So that’s the prologue. Portland has to win this, right? There is no path to the playoffs without three points from Sunday’s match especially when you factor in Portland’s road woes.
With the health concerns and the lack of wing play, I could see Porter swapping from dynamic, penetrating winger to an empty bucket. It’s easy to pigeonhole Porter as a systems guy, but truth is he’s actually just pragmatic.
In the back of your mind, remember that Portland hosts Saprissa Wednesday and must win by two to advance. Porter rolled the dice last year by swapping a holding mid for a second attacking mid. It was the desperation move that propelled them to the Cup. I would be surprised if Caleb didn’t have any other tricks up his sleeve this year.
Chris Brown: Who will be the most dangerous player on the pitch for either team on Saturday?
Matt Hoffman: That’s an excellent question, Chris. It all comes down to health and opportunity. There’s always the usual suspects of Fanendo Adi, Diego Valeri, and Darlington Nagbe. There’s also the English back row of Liam Ridgewell and Steven Taylor with their blend of physicality and set-pieces.
But the Timbers attack really hums when they have an athletic, rangy-winger to play on the left to counter-balance Nagbe’s forays into the center of the field. Lucas Melano was the guy earlier this season but his groin issue is such that he’s recently flown out to Los Angeles to have it examined. Darren Mattocks was scintillating a few weeks ago, but he also has a knock and we’re only being told he’ll be “available” on Sunday.
If you’re looking for the surprise candidate, that would be Jack McInerney. Jack has been “snakebit,” as Porter put it recently, only scoring one goal in MLS play since June. Strikers are hot and cold bunch. Getting Jack Mac going would be a very good thing for Portland.
But the question you asked is who is the most dangerous player on the field. That’s Shkëlzen Gashi. Portland will be pushing numbers forward, particularly if it’s still deadlocked late in the game. That’s a recipe for a disaster for a team prone to the counter but it comes especially dangerous when you have a player like Gashi who can score like this:
Chris Brown: Portland still has a chance to make the playoffs, but need a team above them to slip up while winning their last two matches. How likely is it Portland make it in?
Matt Hoffman: The odds are against them and they no longer control their own destiny. And I know this sounds crazy or, at best, certainly not healthy, but those sorts of circumstances seem to really bring out the best in this club.
It seems like eons ago but last year Portland was below the red line and needed to pull three results together just to get into the playoffs. The culminated in 4-1 win over, you guessed, Colorado in Portland’s final match of the season.
Of course, Portland was in a similar state in 2014 needing a win in Dallas, which they got in a pyrrhic victory that saw Diego Valeri injure his ACL and still finish the game. It was undone though because Vancouver managed to beat Colorado to edge the Timbers. What is with you guys?
Like I said before, Portland can’t do it on their own. They could win out and still fail to qualify. I think Seattle is safe meaning the axe may have to fall on Sporting KC (plausible) or Real Salt Lake (long shot) to keep the Timbers hopes alive.
Chris Brown: If Portland doesn’t make the playoffs this year is Caleb Porter’s job safe?
Matt Hoffman: Yes. You can say that sports is a results based business and you would be right to point out that Porter got Portland it’s first professional championship since 1978. Of course there’s an ignominy of potentially the second (or third, it’s up to you Columbus!) MLS Cup finalist who missed the playoffs the following season since after the 2006 season.
Missing out of the playoffs would be disappointed, no question about it, but Porter’s successes (MLS Cup title, two Western Conference Championship appearances and double-digit wins in each of his four seasons) far outweigh the negatives and were the reason the Timbers signed Porter to a long term contract extension earlier this year.
Incidentally, how cool is it that Seattle’s interim Head Coach Brian Schmetzer has pictures of Caleb and Bruce Arena on his desk? That “interim” tag has got to be dropped soon, right?
Chris Brown: Which midfielder is more important for Portland against Colorado, Diego Valeri or Darlington Nagbe?
Matt Hoffman: Undoubtedly both are profoundly important for the Timbers. Nagbe has a few caps and I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he will be getting some important minutes as the USMNT goes through The Hex and, hopefully, qualifies for the World Cup.
Diego Valeri is the difference maker if Portland’s midfield. (Photo Credit: Corbin Elliott)
Now, it may sound like hyperbole but I’m not sure if the Timbers will ever again have an attacking midfielder as talented as Diego Valeri. When Valeri is not on the field, the Timbers seldom score. Scroll down any match report in which Valeri has returned after an absence and you’ll invariably find syntax such as this bit from July:
Regardless, Valeri’s goal just before halftime was the Timbers first goal in the run of play since the 64′ mark on June 26th, a span of three games (four if you count the Timbers 1-0 loss to the LA Galaxy in US Open Cup play).
It’s dated now (they stopped updating the table in July), but it’s telling that it’s Valeri who led MLS in Expected Goals this past summer
Put simply, on Sunday, Portland must win. The Timbers cannot win if they can’t score and the Timbers struggle mightily to do either when Valeri is not on the field.
Big thank you to Matt Hoffman for his help with this article. To keep up with Portland Timbers follow Matt Hoffman @mhoff. Matt also co-hosts Radio MLS with @SeanMaslin for Prost Amerika. If you like MLS, references to The Simpsons and 90’s alt/indie-rock, this is the podcast you’ve been waiting for!
