The dreaded math(s) – Win alone not enough for Cascadia to qualify

Max Oldham was outstanding against Barawa
Photo: Ali Gilmore

The dreaded math(s) – Win alone not enough for Cascadia to qualify

Cascadia and Ellan Vannin go onto today’s games buoyed by victories yesterday. Cascadia edged past Barawa 2-1 while Ellan Vannin’s Manx side beat Tamil Eelam 2-0.

That leaves the Group A table looking like this.

Today’s Matches: Kick offs 7am Cascadia time, 3pm London

Barawa v Ellan Vannin (Isle of Man) at Haringey
Cascadia v Tamil Eelam  at Fisher FC

The first tie breaker is the head-to-head score between the two sides equal on points. This means that if both Barawa and Cascadia draw today and finish on four points, Cascadia will progress.

But this is where it gets complicated.

If three teams finish equal on points, then the head-to head becomes moot. If Ellan Vannin, Barawa and Cascadia all finish on six points, as is possible, they will all have one win and one loss against each other.

Then goal difference will come into play.

The  worst case scenario for Cascadia is a one goal win for Barawa today against Ellan Vannin at Haringey. That would leave Cascadia requiring a six goal win over Tamil Eelam. Should Barawa win by two goals then Cascadia would need to win by just five as Ellan Vannin’s goal difference would begin to diminish.

The best case for Cascadia is an Ellan Vannin win. Then a draw against the Tamils will suffice as they will move on to four points.

If Ellan Vannin beat Barawa by six clear goals, then there is  a minute possibility Cascadia could even lose and still qualify.

Tayshan Hayden-Smith may be just the man to torment the Tamils
hoto: Ali Gilmore

In the previous matches, Barawa beat today’s opponents Tamil Eelam 4-0 but two of those were penalties and another a cross that flew in accidentally.

Their 2-0 loss to group leaders Ellan Vannin is a better indication of their quality. Despite being on zero points, they are not the group’s whipping boys and Cascadia will have to be at their best to take all three points.

The obvious wildcard though is that neither coach, James Nichols or the wily Ragesh Nambiar, can send out all his best players for a third straight game and the depth of the squad comes into play. Some of the men who have not appaeared so far will get minutes.

Among the possibilities for Cascadia is the diminutive but talented Tayshan Hayden-Smith who also brings a useful ling throw to his pace and trickery. Kitsap Pumas fans may make a case for Hamza Haddadi who has flown a long way to be part of the squad. Sofien El_Mehrik was the choice yesterday to run down the final minutes if that is any indication of Nichols’ thinking.

Corinthian Casuals’ right winger Max Oldham has had a wonderful tournament so far and was the best player on the pitch yesterday, but looked out on his feet towards the end. He surely deserves a rest with the possibility of bringing him in off the bench should the side need him for the last 15-20 minutes. Much depends on how player’s legs feel as they get up this morning.

The only certainty is that captain Cascadia James Riley who was rested yesterday will be back to lead.

Nichols will be kept aware of events in Haringey and much as of course he will say the traditional “we just have to focus on our own game”, there is no way Cascadia is going out of the tournament having defended a 3-0 lead where they needed to win by four but just didn’t know. Nichols’ operation has become too professional for that.