Surpassed by none: The improbable and inevitable dominance of the 2016 Portland Thorns

by Matt Hoffman (@mhoff)

This past spring, website FiveThirtyEight decided to try their hand at forecasting the NWSL. It did not go well.  According to their model, it would be the Seattle Reign narrowly edging out FC Kansas City for the title. Meanwhile, the Portland Thorns would be spending a second consecutive season missing out on the playoffs. 

Citing the “chaos” of the regular season, they tried again in July. Portland was atop the league table when the updated model was introduced. Having dropped two results, the model was still sour on the Thorns and it’s “correction” merely bumped their expected wins from seven to nine. Despite their place in the standings, the authors thoughts Portland’s dominance to be unsustainable.

Seattle and Kansas City dropped accordingly and in there place came an infatuation with the Western New York Flash. 

Call it small sample size or chalk it up to irrational exuberance when the final whistle blew on the 2016 NWSL season, it was none other than the Portland Thorns alone at the top of the table following Sunday’s Thorns decisive 3-1 win over Sky Blue FC.

There were elements in Sunday’s match that were running narratives throughout the season:

• A balanced attack which saw two different goal scorers and three Thorns players had assists. This brought the Thorn’s goal tally to 35 goals, the second most in league play.
• Stifling defense. With 19 goals, no team allowed fewer goals than the Thorns, the only team in the NWSL to allow less than a goal per game.
•  Road form. Besides a nearly flawless home record, the Thorns boasted an absurd 4-2-4 record on the road.

I feel I must stress that FiveThirtyEight has some of the best and most eloquent writers in the business. I’m quite fond of their work and they are one of the few sites I check regularly the old fashioned way, i.e. actually logging onto the site several times a day as opposed to periodically scanning their articles as they show up in Feedly.

If anything, FiveThirtyEight was right to be cautious of the Thorns chances.

The Thorns were bringing in a new coach.  Mark Parsons had a very successful track record both in England with Chelsea and in his time with the Washington Spirit, but there was no guarantee that that he would find the right chemistry at all, let alone so quickly.

In fact, it did take a while for the team to find its stride. This only makes sense for a team which had completely overhauled its roster. Only six players on the Thorns team that began play in April 2015 (Michelle Betos, Kat Williamson, Emily Menges, Mana Shim, Allie Long, and Tobin Heath) are with the team that won the Shield in New Jersey on Sunday.

With no move being bolder than the blockbuster trade of Alex Morgan. The trade yielded the top overall pick in the 2016 NWSL College Draft (Emily Sonnett), the first pick in the 2015 Expansion Draft (Meghan Klingenberg), and other considerations.

Then there was the Olympics and the specter of international duty. Seven key players effectively missed ¼ of the season. Between injuries, suspensions and international call-ups, only four Thorns players would play in all twenty matches: Nadia Nadim, Emily Menges, Hayley Raso and Katherine Reynolds.

Any of these serious obstacles could thwart the ambitions of any clubs. The Thorns, however, have demonstrated they are not like other clubs.

Instead of wilting, the Thorns blossomed.

The World Cup hangover that saw the 2015 Thorns lose three out of their last four games and miss the playoffs, never happened in 2016.

Chemistry, a culprit in the team’s failure to meet expectations last year, were only a distant memory in 2016. The previous failure to mesh was replaced with a collective hive mentality. With the team’s “shared soccer brain” attacked, defended and moved as one bringing to mind the fluid brand of attacking football of Rinus Michels pioneered in 70’s.

Back and healthy, the Thorns blitzed through September outscoring opponents fourteen to four in their final four matches.

Despite playing in 14 games, Tobin Heath’s ten assists would set a NWSL record for the most assists in a single season. Meanwhile, Portland was the only team in the NWSL to have five players with at least five goals: Nadia Nadim (9), Christine Sinclair (6), Allie Long (6), Dagny Brynjarsdottir (5), and Lindsey Horan (5).

Winning the NWSL Shield is a huge milestone for this team. However, it would be foolhardy to assume a Shield will instantly translate into a championship.

Because it never has before. In the four year history of the league, not once has the NWSL Shield winner won. The Western New York Flash lost to the Thorns in 2013; Seattle lost to Kansas City the following two years.

On the cusp of the team’s first ever home playoff game, the Thorns are two wins away from cementing a legacy.