By Steven Agen
The Seattle Sounders and Colorado Rapids meet at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park on Sunday with a berth to MLS Cup on the line. This Western Conference Final series saw Nico Lodeiro drag Sounders into the lead by a score of 2-1 after conceding early via a deflection to Kevin Doyle in the first leg.
Colorado, for their part, were relatively unbothered by Sounders’ barnstorming second half. Head Coach Pablo Mastroeni has an away goal in his pocket, along with seven 1-0 victories at home this season. That particular result, like the one garnered against LA in the Conference Semifinals, would be enough to carry Rapids to their first title game since 2010.
Seattle Head Coach Brian Schmetzer has the chance to set his side up differently than his predecessor, Sigi Schmid, did in a similar situation in a playoff series against FC Dallas last year. With Sounders leading 2-1 after the first leg, conventional wisdom held that they should play either for a clean sheet or play to score twice (where even conceding 3 on the other end isn’t enough to put them out due to away goals). Schmid opted for the defensive approach, and by the time Dallas had restored parity there was very little time for Sounders to throw on the light switch and play positively. The result was a lifeless half an hour of extra time and the resulting penalty shootout ended their season.
Schmetzer, to his credit, has yet to display the playoff jitters that Schmid wore on his sleeve. A gutsy win over a rampant Sporting KC side in the Knockout Round got him off the mark. A decisive 3-0 win over domestic double winners and (then-) current playoff bogey team FC Dallas followed, and gave Seattle a new lease on life when it comes to playoff soccer. Remarkably, Sounders had never led by more than a goal in any aggregate series in their MLS history until Lodeiro put them two (and then three) goals up against the Hoops. (9 MLS Cup Playoffs series, 3 CCL Knockout Round series, 2 CCL Play-In Round series.) The fact that Schmetzer kept his foot on the gas after taking the lead against Dallas was the surest indication yet that this Seattle team has turned over a new leaf in the playoffs.
The ultimate test for Schmetzer in his tenure as manager so far will be to avoid the same trap Sounders fell into last year. On this occasion, the matchup is arguably even worse for Seattle. If the Rapids score first, Sounders must give themselves more time for the rescue operation than they allowed against Dallas. Colorado’s league-leading defense demands it of them, as Seattle are extremely long odds to repeat their feat of quickly equalizing late as in Frisco last year.
While 0-0 puts Sounders through, the longer the match stays scoreless, the better the Rapids will feel. This counterintuitive notion stems from the fact that Colorado need only one moment, one chance, to put Seattle out on away goals. It leads to the slightly paradoxical situation of the Rapids gaining in confidence, and increasing their odds of advancing, the longer they trail by the margin they are as of the first leg. It is against the backdrop of this difficult game state that Schmetzer will look to make his mark, and to complete Sounders’ midseason turnaround.
After Sounders won the US Open Cup and Supporters’ Shield in 2014 and then advanced to the Conference Final, and after LA dumped them out of the playoffs in that series, it became clear enough that MLS Cup is a challenge Sounders won’t conquer in the conventional way. That is to say, historically, the best Seattle sides face a pressure from both outside and within that impact their ability to perform. Seven years without a trip to the title game attests to this fact.
It’s in a year like this, where poor results through July lowered expectations greatly, that one figures Seattle could break through. In order to conquer that ultimate barrier, though, they’ll need to surmount both the same game state as in last year’s playoff exit and the league’s toughest defense.
Sounders have flipped the tables around almost completely since the summer. On Sunday, we find out if those tables land with their legs straight in the air.
PREDICTION:
Colorado Rapids 1, Seattle Sounders 1 (Aggregate: 2-3)
Lodeiro (Morris) 68′
Jones (PK) 87′
Seattle Sounders
Colorado Rapids
