Sounders and Vancouver have different but achievable targets
Sounders playoff odds at 34.7%; Caps now Shield favorites
The latest round of probabilities for MLS and worldwide soccer success have been posted at Sportsclubstats. The site uses statistical probabilities beyond the comprehension of mere mortals to gauge likely probabilities of success around the sporting world.
In Major League Soccer, the latest numbers for the Western Conference make interesting reading.
Following LA Galaxy’s 5-1 romp over a hapless New York City, they are listed at 18.3% to win the Supporters Shield. That’s some distance behind favorites Vancouver who have 38%. New York Red Bulls stand at 28.2%
In the race to secure a playoff place, San Jose’s current form has rejuvenated their percentages.
The win over DC United boosted their chances by a massive 18.3%. They are now 74.8% to make the playoffs, with Sounders falling to 34.7%.
The good news for Seattle is that many Sounders games are against their direct rivals which leaves their fate very much in their own hands. For example, nominally, that play off percentage rate will increase by a massive 11.5% if they beat rivals Portland this weekend.
With San Jose providing the opposition on September 12th, that swing could be even greater.
Play off presence seems more likely elsewhere in Cascadia. Portland are at 79.4% and Vancouver at 99%. Portland’s chances will dip by 7.8% if they lose to Seattle in this weekend’s Cascadia derby however.
Despite their weekend win, RSL plough along at just 3.5% even behind the Chicago Fire.
What do Sounders FC need to do to make the play offs?
Currently Sounders have 35 points from 26 matches.
The Sounders FC specific page lists a variety of outcomes. Their statistical chances remain in single figures unless they reach 45 points. At 46 points, they rise to 33% depending on whether those 11 are gained through 5 draws or 2.
At 47 points, they rise to over half way, unless those 12 are brought by four straight wins. 48 points seems to be the statistical tipping point with their odds rising to 67.9% or 73% depending on how those 13 are gained. If they reach more than 48 points, the odds are heavily in their favor.
The numbers needed though could change quite sharply if they beat San Jose on September 12.
Nominal target – 48 points.
Sounders are 62.3% to progress to the next round of the CONCACAF Champions League.
What do Whitecaps need to do to win the Shield?
Currently Vancouver have 42 points from 25 games.
The Whitecaps FC page provides the answers to their targets. They need to reach 57 before their Shield chances even reach double figures. At 60 points, their chances first rise over the 50% mark, with either 56.5% or 57.1% the odds, depending on how those 15 points are accrued. At 62 points, their chances rise to over 80%.
They do not have LA left to play, so there are fewer big swing games.
Nominal target – 62 points.
The Whitecaps are 28.5% to progress to the next round of the CONCACAF Champions League.
And the Portland Timbers?
Currently Portland have 40 points from 26 games.
The Portland Timbers page shows that an unlikely 61 points (winning 7 or their last 8) takes them over 50% for the Shield. More plausibly, they are looking at 47 points (a mere 7 more) before their play off chances rise to over 50%. 48 points make them a statistical probability in the high 70s.
After Seattle, Portland have only one game against a direct threat to their play off chances, and that is against RSL. The other games are against teams above them or Eastern Conference sides.
Nominal target – 48 points.
How Sportsclubstats calculates play off percentages:
Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game.
The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.
The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game.
Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished “playing” all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many “seasons” each team finishes where.
