Kyra Carusa opens the scoring for San Diego in minute 20 during the first half of the NWSL regular season match between the Portland Thorns and San Diego Wave (Photo by Diego G Diaz Photograhy).
Two matchdays left on the NWSL regular season calendar, only one team is mathematically qualified for the postseason, San Diego Wave, and one completely discarded, Kansas City Current. Portland Thorns is a strong probable (not mathematically fully locked in, but with goal difference of +13 that would be epic to beat), and nine teams within six points of each other still in the fight.
These are the ingredients for a very exciting season end.
That is what made San Diego’s away victory over the Portland Thorns last week at Providence Park, much more than a win. The Wave are now on top of the league, one point clear of the Thorns, and have the NWSL Shield in their grasp. But there is very little room for error.
San Diego Wave faced the current champions, the Portland Thorns on Saturday September 30. Both teams almost at full strength, with the notable absence of Portland’s top striker Sophia Smith. The result was an excellent match, with San Diego overpowering Portland with order, pressure, and the deadly prowess of Alex Morgan. A win that had the taste of a final, and that sets them apart as the top candidate for both this year’s NWSL Shield and Championship.
The match between the league’s top teams wasn’t an exuberant display, but it showed some of the highest level of competition in women’s club football the world has to offer today.
San Diego resisted the initial pushes by Portland, and after the first 10 minutes, started to impose its rhythm and discipline. By the time the first goal was scored by the Republic of Ireland international Kyra Carusa in minute 20, they had already been dictating the play. Forward Alex Morgan would double the advantage in minute 38. The rest of the match was very well managed by the visitors, with a dull Thorns playing out of heart and pride, squandering what little opportunities they got, and generally unable to fully break the iron clad order of the Wave.
Portland specially missed Ballon D’Or nominee Sophia Smith, while she is still out on injury since August, the Thorns striker is still is this season’s top scorer with 11 goals. Sophia is that kind of special player, the absence of her constant threat, skill and trickery was determinant in a match of such importance. Portland Thorns were one win away make a strong step towards winning this season’s NWSL Shield. Now they find themselves trailing, and under pressure to win all matches, hoping for San Diego to drop points.
San Diego Wave’s impressive display in Portland allowed them to climb to the top with 33 points, followed by Portland Thorns with 32. While it wouldn’t be a stretch to say these two might have been the best teams this season, it would be a disservice to fully discount New York’s Gotham FC, with 30 points, and even North Carolina Courage and Washington Spirit with 29 points each.
Portland is still a top candidate. They both need to win, if San Diego drops just one point, the Thorns would be raising that Shield. But the pressure doesn’t come only from what San Diego does, it comes from bellow with Gotham FC still with a viable path to win, happy to challenge the top two. Gotham will be a hungry team visiting Portland with great ambition. Should Portland tie or loose this Saturday, they will find themselves on decision day, fighting to defend that second place that allows to skip the quarter finals of the play offs.
A victory, would elevate Gotham to second place with 33 points. They still would need to win again next week back in New York, in their last regular season match against KC Current, then hope San Diego gets nothing more than draws in their last two games for a chance to come out on top. That second spot would still be a great result that would send them straight to the semifinals of the NWSL Championship.
Portland faces a tough client in Gotham FC this Saturday in front of its home crowd. New York leads Portland in their direct encounters this season, with their home 2-1 victory earlier in the season, and have a team that has proved more than capable, to beat any team, anywhere. Their squad anecdotally has 6 ex-Thorns, including iconic players like, Allie Long, Mana Shin, and Michelle Betos.
A Portland loss and San Diego win would make, the latter need just a tie on decision day, when they host Louisville on October 15th. However, a New York – Portland tie, and a San Diego win, would make them mathematically champions, with no skin in their last game, other than the trophy presentation and victory party.
The plot thickens, as San Diego Wave will be also hosting a tough visitor this Saturday, October 7, North Carolina Courage, who is also eager for a positive result that would secure their postseason spot. They are mathematically still in the race for the shield, with remote chances, but not zero, for that they also need a win. Should the Wave lose against the Courage, then the math widens and we could be looking to a mad decision day resolution. All games playing at the same time 2:00 PM PST on Sunday October 15. What a Sunday indeed!
In all cases, none of them will be easy games, both Portland and San Diego are likely to facing teams that still have a fighting chance on one of the last tickets for the post season. The pressure is high, with no room for error, and plenty of room for beautiful season finale drama.
