The Portuguese First Division, officially known as the Liga Nos due to sponsorships, has always been a three-horse race. Aside from the outlier seasons in 1945-46 — won by Belenenses, the third most popular club from Lisbon — and 2000-01 — won by Boavista, the second most popular club of Portugal’s second biggest city Porto — every other edition of the league has been on by the trio of clubs commonly known as “Os Grandes.”
The monopoly led by S.L. Benfica, Sporting Clube de Portugal and FC Porto is likely to never end the way the league is run, so the title will once again be disputed by the three candidates again when the 2016-17 season kicks-off on Friday, August 12.
I’ll be taking a look at the traditional Big Three, as well as a team I believe will surprise a lot of people this season.
S.L. Benfica
Transfers In: Andre Carrillo, Franco Cervi, Oscar Benitez, Andre Horta, Branimir Kalainca, Guillermo Celis, Andrija Zivkovic, Danilo Barboso
Transfers Out: Renato Sanches, Nico Gaitan
Benfica enters the campaign looking to do something it hasn’t never done.
The three-time defending champions look to join Porto as the only clubs in league history to win four consecutive titles, something the Dragons did twice, winning five straight between 1994-99 and four straight from 2005-2009.
Despite selling their two best players from last season in winger Nico Gaitan () and youth product Renato Sanches (35 + objective to Bayern Munich), who burst onto the scene as an 18-year old revolution in midfield to propel Benfica to the triple, and potentially seeing numerous other players being sold until the transfer deadline on August 31st, Benfica is perhaps the team best positioned to win the title.
The Eagles were quick to put the money earned in the transfers to work, purchasing wingers Andrija Zivkovic from Partizan and Oscar Benitez from Lanus to replace the loss of Gaitan and potential selling of Toto Salvio, who is reportedly garnering interest from Sunderland, though the Argentine went to Twitter to passive-aggressively calm the rumors.
The new signings will join winter signing Andre Carillo — who joined Benfica on a free after a highly publicized dispute between his agent and his former club Sporting’s president Bruno de Carvalho — in the competition for the starting spot on the wings of manager Rui Vitoria’s 4x4x2 he adopted upon arriving at the Estadio da Luz.
Benfica also replenished its midfield after the loss of Sanches and the rumored selling of Anderson Talisca to Wolves in England, bringing SC Braga’s Danilo Barbosa, a Jorge Mendes client who spent last season on loan at Valencia and failed to impress under Nuno Espirito Santos, Gary Neville and Pako Ayesteran. Though the move furthered the notion of Mendes’ using Valencia, Benfica and Braga as farm systems for his players, it also provided cover for Fesja and Andreas Samaris in the 6 spot in midfield.
Os Encarnados also added Andre Horta, a former academy product that shone at Vitoria de Setubal last season as 19-year old in the summer, as well as Franco Cervi — an attacking midfielder that Vitoria experimented as a defensive midfielder early in the preseason — in the winter transfer window in order to seek a replacement for Sanches.
Horta has been Vitoria’s go-to player at the position during the preseason, but his lack of strength on the ball may cause trouble when playing the top clubs in the league and especially when playing in the Champions League.
What the midfielder lacks in strength, however, he makes up for in technical ability in abundance. If he could maintain the level of composure and vision he had at Setubal, where he dished 3 assists and scored 2 goals in 36 matches, he’ll see his numbers rise meteorically.
Rather than seeing Andre Claro and Suk — a pair of solid strikers in their own right — when he peeks his head upfield looking to pick a pass, he’ll see two of the top three goalscorers of last season’s campaign making darting runs towards goal.
The top scorer of the last two editions of the Liga Nos, Jonas has reportedly turned down lucrative offers to play in China to attempt to win his third straight title with the Eagles.
Jonas was operated on an injured right ankle days before the start of the season, reportedly keeping him out for the first three matches of the season, a big blow due to how much influence the Brazilian has in Benfica’s attack both in build-up and in finishing.
Though, if Konstantinos Mitroglou, who was officially bought this summer after spending last season on loan from Fulham, can replicate his form from last season while Jonas is gone, Benfica won’t notice too much of a difference.
The Greek forward had 20 goals last season, finishing third behind Jonas and Sporting’s Islam Slimani.
Benfica may have lost two of its most influential players before the summer even began, but it was able to make enough quality signings to cover itself, at least on paper. If everything pans out the way it looks it will, Benfica is well on its way to a fourth-straight Liga Nos title.
But just as we saw last season, when Benfica was pegged to finish third by many in the first month, not everything works the way it appears it will.
Sporting CP:
Transfers In: Beto, Lukas Spalvis, Alan Ruiz, Federico Ruiz, Radosav Petrovic, Marcelo Meli.
Transfers Out: Andre Carrillo, Teo Gutierrez, João Mario.
A second straight runner up place finish in Jorge Jesus’ first season in Alvalade last year was bittersweet. The manager – who had been at Benfica for six years, winning the first two of the Eagles current tri-championship before crossing the Segundo Circular to join the Lions – had said his project may not lead to a title in its first season, and he was right, perhaps turning it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sporting led through Christmas and seemed poised to win its first title in 14 years, but a few slips against lesser opposition ended by a 1-0 derby loss to a Benfica side it had dominated in three previous meetings saw the title slip from its hands and stay at the Estadio da Luz for another year.
Sporting was unable to finish strongly despite having four players – Rui Patricio, Adrien, João Mario and William – that played crucial roles in Portugal winning its first ever major trophy at the 2016 European Championships. None have left yet but pressure from João Mario’s father / agent may see the most promising of the four leave before the transfer window closes August 31. As of the publishing of this article, both the Portuguese and Italian press have all but guaranteed Mario going to Inter Milan for 45 million pounds + five more in bonuses / objectives.
Striker Islam Slimani, who led the team in goals with 27 last season, trailing only Benfica’s Jonas for the league’s goal scoring title, has also been reportedly pressuring the administration to sell him. At 28, he’s approaching his final chance to play in a bigger league than the Liga Nos.
The moves from players who are too talented to stay in Portugal any longer were to be expected, but Sporting didn’t prepare as if that was the case. The Lions made some signings that would fill some holes left by any of the potential departures but not nearly to the same level, and have yet to fill a few still remaining.
Perhaps the biggest signings thus far reinforced the club’s strongest areas.
With Patricio on holiday following the Euro, Azbe Jug, the back-up goalkeeper who was signed last winter from French side Bordeaux, had an opportunity to show his worth between the posts. Jug did the opposite, struggling mightily as the Lions conceded 14 goals in eight matches, leaving Sporting one injury to Patricio away from far less stability in goal. The solution came in the form of Beto, a former academy product without a club after his contract with Sevilla ended and was not renewed. In the unlikely case of Patricio leaving the club or suffering an injury, the level in play in goal won’t drop drastically.
The other big signing was Marcelo Meli, a central midfielder rumored to be headed to Benfica last summer. Fitting characteristics closest to what Adrien brings, he likely won’t dethrone the club captain, who is as unlikely to leave as Patricio, but he provides much needed depth in the position Sporting didn’t have whenever Adrien missed time because of injury or suspension.
Admittedly, they have been unlucky to see striker Lukas Spalvis tear his ACL in the second match of the preseason against Stade Nyonnais on July 15, losing the first half of the season at best. If Slimani is sold, Sporting have no player that would fit the main striker role in the 4x4x2 Jesus adheres to.
The second striker role occupied by Teo Gutierrez when he wasn’t extending his vacation last season appears to be in better shape. Gutierrez is on his way to Argentina to play for Rosario Central on loan but new signing Alan Ruiz seems more and more like an appropriate replacement as he plays himself into shape throughout the preseason. Jesus’ said he lost 7 kilos in the first three weeks he’s been in Portugal, but quickly reminded him he needed to lose another three to be in proper shape.
William Carvalho has been rumored to leave the club every year since he burst onto the scene in 2013-14, being linked to Arsenal and Manchester United, among other clubs, but never seeing the interest materialize into an exit. The rumors around his name have been less this preseason, either indicating his staying at his boyhood club for another season or perhaps his exit being imminent.
If that’s the case, he’ll leave a hole as massive as the wide range of space he covers throughout a match playing at defensive midfield. Radosav Petrovic, signed from Dinamo Kiev, is the only player on the squad who plays in the position but he has not impressed at all in the green and white striped kit.
William playing in front of the Sporting back four was one of the few reasons the team didn’t suffer more than 2 goals in a match, his recovering of the ball and quick recuperation preventing teams from having runs at the center-backs. But if Petrovic is unable to repeat the Portuguese’s magic and leaves his back line exposed, the Lions could see themselves conceding more often. Prone to lapses in concentration and suffering untimely goals last season, the defense was clearly Sporting’s weak point last season, and yet it hasn’t made a signing of substance. Rumors of former Twente center back Douglas signing were on the cover of Portuguese sports dailys the entire month of July but the Brazilian has yet to arrive at Alcochete. Instead, Jesus has been working with the same defense he had last season barring Tobias Figueiredo, which can be helpful in development as they already know the way the manager wants his defense set up, but hurts in the lack of quality in both flanks and depth throughout.
Despite the realistic issues Sporting may encounter in the future, the fact of the matter is the squad remains close to what it was last season.
Sporting’s season starts August 13th against Maritimo and it will play three games until the transfer window closes. What happens between now and then will determine the direction of the season – if the club’s core remains and play to the level of last season, the Lions have a chance to end the title drought. If any of the core is sold, it will have some quick work to do in the market or it will have to rely on Jesus’ – both the manager and the deity – to prevent the streak from reaching 15 years and win its 19th title.
FC Porto
Transfers In: Joao Carlos Teixeira, Felipe, Alex Telles, Laurent Depoitre
Transfers Out: Moussa Marega
The second year of the Julen Lopetegui era in Porto ended much like the first — a half-empty Estadio do Dragao watching the side play its final matches of the season with no purpose as a third place finish was guaranteed in April.
The past few seasons at the club are outliers in the dominance the Dragons have had in Portugal over the past pair of decades, when they’ve won 16 of the last 25 editions of the Portuguese Liga.
The Lopetegui experiment ended after two years and the Spanish manager returned to the international game, being named the manager of the Spanish national side after his success with the youth programs in the federation before arriving at Porto.
His replacement during the season, Jose Peseiro, was not named his successor and is instead managing SC Braga this season. Instead, the Dragons brought in a household name to manage the side, Nuno Espirito Santos.
The former Valencia manager was a goalkeeper at Porto for much of his career and brings with him a passion for the club the Dragons likely couldn’t find in another manager.
But passion can only take a club so far, results are what matter in football and while the supporters love the choice for the time being, Nuno will need to have a first season like the one he had in Spain when Valencia took La Liga by storm, finishing fourth after having finished eighth the season before.
Porto is the only club of the big three to change managers, the most drastic but also one of the few differences in the side.
Espirito Santo inherited a squad with a number of visible issues, the most glaring of which being a porous defense that allowed 30 goals in 34 games, resulting in seven losses and four draws. The club has done little to fix the issue in the market, signing Felipe from Corinthians but no one else to add depth in central defense. The Dragons added Alex Telles from Galatasaray, but he plays left-back primarily, where Miguel Layun, easily Porto’s best player last season, holds the starting position with a death grip. Bruno Martins Indi, a flop in his first two seasons in Portugal, has been relegated to the B team and will likely be sold, leaving Porto’s already thin backline even weaker with three weeks remaining in the transfer window.
The other glaring issue Porto had last season was the inability to finish the chances it created, with Vincent Aboubakar’s luck running out after a blistering start to the season. The Cameroonian has yet to leave the club but will likely be playing second fiddle to either Andre Silva — a Porto youth product who exploded onto the scene with a phenomenal showing in the Portuguese Cup final against Braga in May, scoring a brace to reverse a 2-0 deficit and push the game to extra-time, though Porto eventually lost — and Laurent Depoitre. The Belgian was signed from Gent, where he scored 14 goals last season, August 8 and provides a depth in the front line.
Though the changes were few, many questions marks surround this Porto side in Nuno Espirito Santos’ first season. Some will be given a temporary response when the Dragons open the season Friday, August 12, against Rio Ave.
Team that may surprise:
Vitoria de Setubal:
The club had a fantastic start last season under Quim Machado, hanging around in fifth place halfway through the season largely thanks to Suk Hyun-Jun scoring 13 goals in the first four months of the season, both Andre’s — Horta and Claro — playing absurdly well and Ruben Semedo holding down the back-line.
But things fell apart in the second half of the season as Suk was sold to Porto in January, Semedo’s loan terminated early as he was called back to Sporting and Machado began to make too many rotations in his line-ups, experimenting his way to a 15th place finish, just one point away from being relegated.
Despite losing perhaps its best player in Andre Horta to Benfica, Setubal looks poised to return to the early highs of last season with the incredible business it conducted over the summer.
The club signed Bruno Varela and Fabio Cardoso on free transfers and Nuno Santos on loan from Benfica, Ryan Gould and Andre Geraldes on loan from Sporting and Mikel Agu and Ze Manuel on loan from Porto, covering most areas of the pitch with young talent filled with potential from the Big Three.
The strategy is high-risk, high-reward — if the players don’t perform to their potential, the club could be at risk for another relegation battle down the stretch, but if they do reach the heights they’re expected to, Setubal could be fighting for a spot in the Europa League with a top-6 finish.
Team of the Season Prediction:
This is based entirely on projection and could change depending on transfers in / out of the league.
For the sake of simplicity, I’m working in a traditional 4x3x3.
Goalkeeper: Rui Patricio
Left Back: Miguel Layun
Center Backs: Jardel / Diego Reyes
Right Back: Maxi Pereira
Defensive Midfield: William Carvalho
Central Midfield: Adrien
Attacking Midfield: Andre Horta
Left Wing: Andre Carrillo
Right Wing: Yacine Brahimi
Striker: Jonas
Predicted Champions:
Benfica. There is no way around it — based on the squads, the managing staffs and the preseason preparations, there is no other team that is close to as strong as Benfica looks right now.
Final Table Prediction:
1st – Benfica
2nd – Sporting
3rd – Porto
4th – Braga
5th – Setubal
6th – Guimarães
7th – Rio Ave
8th – Nacional
9th – Arouca
10th – Belenenses
11th – Maritimo
12th – Tondela
13th – Paços de Ferreira
14th – Chaves
15th – Arouca
16th – Feirense
17th – Boavista
18th – Moreirense
