1- San Antonio
Last month: 1
Flying somewhat under the radar while others try and make a splash and effectively play the media, San Antonio is a sure-fire bet for a successful club should MLS select the city. San Antonio combined solid ownership in the form of the San Antonio Spurs with a strong and established fan base. The fans have continued to flock to Toyota Field this season.
San Antonio has proven willing to support a club whether it is in NASL or USL, winning or losing, and regardless of brand or ownership. The area has never seen a meaningful drop in attendance despite the ebbs and flows in competitiveness during the era of the San Antonio Scorpions of NASL (2012-15) and that support continued as the Spurs purchased the stadium and in a complicated set of maneuvers started a club in USL while the NASL one disappeared in 2016.
Unlike most other expansion hopefuls, San Antonio has full buy in from city and county as well as established pro sports owners and settled stadium situation. Two drawbacks could be the stadium location as well as the smallish size of the overall TV market. But MLS is as interested in growing Hispanic audience as anything other factor and San Antonio is the Nielsen no.7 Hispanic TV market. The city itself is one of the largest in the country but of course what matters is the size of the metropolitan area and catchment area which are smaller. However with the stadium being in the northern tier of town it is possible fans from Austin, another medium-sized market which has stimulated MLS’ interest in the past could travel down I-35 to support this club.
Positive: Ownership, political support, stadium, large Hispanic TV market, steady fan support
Negative: Stadium locale, smallish overall TV market
Bottom line: MLS needs a team in Texas that moves the needle. Bringing the Spurs in with a ready made fan base is a no-brainer.
2- Sacramento
Last month: 2
Sacramento remains a solid market despite the recent tumult around the ownership of the Republic and those involved in the MLS bid. Those problems appear resolved for the moment but still this has been more complicated than need be. The league loves political leadership and owners of other sports teams being involved in MLS expansion and Sacramento has that as well as a ready-made fan base that has supported D3 and D3 soccer as well as a club with the infrastructure to make the move about as seamlessly as possible. The formula followed by Portland, Orlando, Minnesota and others makes Sacramento a good bet.
Sacramento is the largest TV market in a Pacific Coast state without an MLS team currently.
Positive: Ownership, fan support, established club, large TV market.
Negative: Nothing really
Bottom line: A turnkey operation hitting some inertia recently but still a solid bet.
Good bets:
3- Raleigh/Durham
Last month: 3
North Carolina FC has transformed from a struggling NASL club on the brink of extinction before being rescued by Steve Malik in October 2015 to possibly the most impressive complete pro soccer club outside MLS in June 2017. Malik has secured the long-term future of the club formerly known as the Carolina RailHawks, bought and relocated the NWSL Champion Western New York Flash who are now playing as the North Carolina Courage and integrated the CASL youth pyramid, one of the best in the country into the club. This club is ready-to-go and could temporarily play at WakeMed Soccer Park, the current home of the NASL club indefinetely until a stadium was built. WMSP is one of the best soccer-specific playing surfaces in the country and has hosted countless NCAA College Cups on both the men’s and women’s side.
The Raleigh/Durham market isn’t the largest but it is one with an almost unparalleled history of support pro and college soccer both of the women’s and men’s variety. It seems a natural fit for MLS.
The July site visit by MLS went well according to all accounts. As important as any pep rally that was thrown for the club among its fan base was the interaction of MLS
Positive: Steady ownership, built-in youth structure, large soccer community.
Negative: TV market size, unlikely to get a downtown stadium
Bottom line: Solid but unspectacular. It really depends on whether MLS wants consistency or splashiness. If they want the later look below.
—
4- Phoenix
Last month: 6
A late surge from Phoenix has put USL’s Phoenix Rising FC right in the conversation for MLS Expansion. This bid continues (pun sort of intended) to “rise” every month.
Phoenix is the second largest TV market outside MLS and is also a top ten Hispanic market. The addition of Omar Bravo and Shaun Wright-Phillips to the USL playing squad gave the club a boost as they sought to increase attendance, local interest and sponsorship this season as a prelude to an MLS jump. Then came Didier Drogba, as a part-owner and player.
Phoenix Rising FC was suddenly making global headlines. For a large market and a club that’s generating global feel-good headlines. The timing was perfect as other MLS’ bids began to fall away.
USL has tried valiantly to make this market work, cycling through ownership changes and complete rebrands in recent years. For whatever reason despite decent crowds, something always gets in the way. Then there is the desire to privately finance a stadium where the club currently plays. That’s a noble goal but will be difficult.
Political support is coming together and unlike other markets seems to be sticking. Slow and steady wins the race which is what San Antonio has done, but Phoenix’s late start always made a certain degree of PR splash necessary. They have followed this up with coalescing political, community and business support. Right now, this bid looks a winner and market size including a huge Latino population makes this one even more likely.
Positives: Huge market, splashy names, political and community support coming together.
Negatives: No consistency in this market historically.
In the Mix:
5- Cincinnati
Last month: 5
FC Cincinnati is the flavor of the year in American soccer. Drawing crowds upwards of 20,000 on a regular basis, many have placed FCC right at the top of the prospective MLS expansion list. Not so fast – the market has shown it can support soccer at a high level for one year only and that has been thanks in large measure to extravagant spending. Cincinnati is a middle American city that has adopted the ultimate hipster and foreign sport – that in itself should be a big story and something everyone in the American soccer community can embrace.
US Open Cup helped Cincinnati greatly with two large crowds for matchups with MLS clubs. The sellout against Chicago Fire was broadcast live nationally on ESPN. FCC fans have regularly traveled to away matches in close locales like Louisville and even according to my sources had about 250 traveling fans for the postponed US Open Cup Quarterfinal midweek matchup away from home in Miami!
The TV market would be the smallest in MLS and there is no Hispanic population base either. But given the ambition and support this organization has show and elicited, it would be a shame if they missed out. Proximity to Columbus is also a consideration though regional rivalries should be encouraged rather than discouraged. If MLS is willing to look past market size, Cincinnati should get in.
Positive: So-far a really rabid fan base, willing to travel to matches.
Negative: Smallish TV market, proximity to Columbus.
Bottom Line: Cincinnati’s “We invented the wheel!” mentality worked in Orlando and Seattle. But those were bigger markets. Still not much to critique negatively here other than the small market size.
6- Nashville
Last month: NR
One of the most underrated soccer markets in the country, Nashville has developed hard core fans for amatuer teams, supported the USMNT in random friendlies and sent traveling fans all over the south looking for games through the years.
This market has surged with the successful CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B opener for the US vs Panama, the resolution of ownership issues with Nashville SC as well as a coalescing of political and community support. Charlotte’s complete implosion, a geographic rival hasn’t hurt either.
Bottom Line:
A good long-term bet as a market but behind the pack for teams 25 and 26. If Nashville SC is as successful in USL as some of us believe it will be, then next year we could see Nashville at the top of the conversation for teams 27 and 28.
7- Tampa/ St. Petersburg
Last month: 7
The largest TV market in the US without an MLS team, Tampa/St Petersburg is also one of only two markets to lose an MLS team (Miami/Fort Lauderdale is the other). The Tampa Bay Rowdies revival in 2010 rekindled a fan base that has been dormant, but immediately demonstrated the strength of this market. Usurped by nearby Orlando who eclipsed Tampa Bay as an MLS consideration in 2012 and 2013 as the Rowdies struggled with ownership, the MLS dream never really died.
Enter the controversial, swashbuckling Bill Edwards, who saved the Rowdies weeks before potentially folding in early 2014. The Rowdies quickly reemerged as a hot ticket in town and shifted from NASL to USL at the end of the 2016 season. Edwards has so much influence with the city of St Petersburg that he’s been able to lock down political support of political rivals without breaking a sweat and bankrolled a local referendum where 87% of the city’s voters gave the municipal leadership the go-ahead to negotiate a long-term lease with the club for MLS.
On the surface Tampa Bay is among the best markets for MLS to grab. But there are drawbacks. Firstly, MLS might prefer being on the Tampa side of the bay rather than in St Petersburg. Secondly, the Rowdies proposal for renovation and expansion of Al Lang Stadium is quite frankly substandard by the established MLS norm. This is despite the fact that the vista where the stadium sits would arguably be the best in the league and exactly what MLS tried to accomplish in Miami with David Beckham before that fell through. Thirdly, Edwards himself is a wild card, unpredictable and in a league whose image-consciousness is often over-the-top, Edwards may not be a clean fit in MLS. Fourthly, MLS would be smart to want a “war on I-4” but perhaps they are fearful the Rowdies would cut into Orlando City’s supporter base.
The poor turnout for the CONCACAF Gold Cup matches in Tampa (which included the US) continued a string of disappointing attendances for the USMNT when visiting Tampa dating back to 2010. Tampa isn’t St Petersburg but if the Tampa side of the bay isn’t energized about soccer the way they should be, it’s hard to see this working. Most of the recent growth in this metropolitan area has been in the bedroom communities of Hillsborough County – closer and more accessible to Tampa than St Petersburg. Attendance has actually gone down this season for the Rowdies, if ever so slightly from last season – a rare example of a club launching an MLS bid and it not impacting local support of a lower division club.
Of course, as a Floridian I very badly want the Rowdies to get into MLS. But at this point, I believe they are just on the outside looking in.
Positive: Waterfront vista, HUGE TV market, political support.
Negative: Unpredictable owner, proximity to Orlando, stadium really not up to MLS level even after refurbishment.
Bottom line: I’m still not sold MLS wants to be on the Pinellas side of the bay. Bill Edwards unpredictability might cost this bid.
—
Incomplete:
Detroit – It’s a big market with good owners on paper. But the NPSL Detroit City FC one of the most celebrated and successful lower division sides in the country want no part of this bid. If Dan Gilbert’s late June bid for Wayne County’s “failed” jail site is the winner in a public process, then Detroit suddenly surges in this conversation. Until then we’re leaving them out of the rankings.
—
Longer shots :
St. Louis – Would be number one on the list if the ill-fated referendum earlier this year had gone another way. At some point pro soccer must “come home” to St Louis in the form of a first division club. But when is now anyone’s guess.
San Diego – Soccer City being put on the ballot being punted until next year’s General Election kills San Diego chances for teams 25 or 26. It also likely cripples the chances for 27 or 28 for now. In the meantime, NASL has announced a San Diego team to commence play in 2018.
Charlotte- Long-shot bid was fatally wounded by the debacle over public officials and MLS’ site visit in mid-July. This bid is finished for now.
—
Non-starter:
Indianapolis – This bid was a rouse – an effort for an NASL team that has been losing political battles and fan support to win both back. Never a serious MLS-play.
MLS
August, 2024
Kartik Krishnaiyer
September, 2017
July, 2017
