Editorial: Restructuring, not expansion necessary for the World Cup

There is such a thing as having too much of a good thing.

During the previous FIFA election one of the major topics that was discussed aside from oh massive corruption and racketeering was the idea of expanding the Men’s World Cup. Gerard Infantino, the newly minted FIFA president, has expressed his own interest in expanding the top international tournament to 40 teams. Given that no organization will say no to greater opportunities and more money it almost seems like a certainty.

While this sounds like a great idea in theory (who doesn’t want more World Cup matches?) in principle it is an idea that has many holes. The presumption is that by adding additional teams that it will make the World Cup a bigger event, that there is enough talent in the countries that are being left out and that the quality of the product on the pitch will not suffer.

Both of these three points have merit and is worth looking at. Certainly there is something to the idea that countries that do not have a team in the World Cup might not care as much about the tournament if there country is not in it. One can go back to U.S.A. 1994 when England was unable to qualify and the tournament was met with a yawn. Other countries where soccer is not the top sport in the world might not be as interested if they do not have a vested interest in it.

The issue of talent and quality is also very important. Soccer has perhaps never been more diverse and had more different players from different countries across the world. Just look at the rosters of the top clubs in Europe and one will see a potpourri of different nationalities, origins, and backgrounds. It is a credit to the globalization of the game and the efforts at both the club and national level to finding and locating talent from all regions of the globe. Even the United States can have their shining star in 17 year old Borussia Dortmund striker Christian Pulisic.

So given all of these factors it would make sense that FIFA would want to expand. But there is one aspect that is missing from this line of thinking: the quality of play. While adding eight additional teams would likely give new opportunities to countries that might not have had the chance it does so to the detriment of the tournament itself.

There are two reasons for this. First, success for individual players at a club level does not always mean that there will be success for their respective national team. This is the George Weah hypothesis. Weah was a marvel for AC Milan and Juventus in the 1980s and 1990s one of the best players in all Europe and all of the world. Yet Weah never played in a World Cup because he represented Liberia, a minnow in world football. The idea of expanding the World Cup is intended to get as many of the top players in the world into the tournament. But what is the cost of getting some of these players into a tournament when the rest of their team is not up to par?

Second, adding additional teams means more matches which means more players being stretched too thin. Given how busy the club and international schedules are these days players are already being overused and coming into tournaments not in top form. An additional eight teams into the World Cup will only worsen this trend and drop overall play even more.

The notion that people will only watch the World Cup when their country is in it is a bit antiquated. While soccer supporters will certainly be more interested in the tournament when their team is in it, the success of the European clubs and the UEFA Champions League has proven that people’s interest in the game is no longer limited to their borders. Even in the United States where athletic nationalism is perhaps higher than anywhere else in the world people will watch a match if it is a good match.

It is a difficult balance that FIFA has to work with. How do they continue to expand into regions like Africa, Asia, and Central and Latin America yet at the same time maintain the level of play?

Restructuring the allocation of World Cup Qualification spots seems to be the best answer. Of the 32 automatic spots for Russia 2018 4 will go to the Asia (AFC), 5 will go to Africa (CAF),  3 will go to North and Central America (CONCACAF,) 4 from South America (CONMEBOL) and 13 will go to Europe (UEFA). The remaining two spots will be contested among the AFC, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, and Oceania, which is a small region made up of New Zealand and several Pacific islands.

When one looks at how qualification spots are allocated the first number that sticks out is the 13 spots given to UEFA. Although they have the second-most teams total that partake in World Cup Qualification (52, second only to CAF’s 54) they hold a lion’s share of automatic qualification spots. This number seems to based off of the dominance of European club sides and their success in past tournaments.

If FIFA were to take away say 2-3 spots from Europe and hand them to CAF and AFC it would create a bit more balance but at the same time not take away from the quality of the tournament. One could make the argument that CONCACAF should have a spot taken away but given how dominant the United States and Mexico are in that region and how improved sides like Jamaica and Costa Rica have been in recent years that seems to be a bit harsh.

The other question that FIFA has to ask themselves is if Oceania deserves an automatic spot. Given how small the region is there is an argument that it does not have enough quality sides to merit a full spot. Yet FIFA does give the region an automatic spot at the U-17 and U-20 World Cup level as well as with the Women’s World Cup. There has also been the argument that the OFC should merge with the AFC. Those that make that argument clearly have never taken a flight from Baghdad to Wellington.

It is easy to see why FIFA would just rather consider expanding than restructuring their bid process. Each automatic qualification spot is so heavily politicized that just expanding the tournament might be less of a headache.

But this is supposedly a new era in FIFA (hold back the laughter) and the organization on the surface seems to be more open and transparent. Rather than looking just at expansion the organization should take a hard look as to the effects that it might have on their tournament. Asking Europe to give up two or three spots may not be an easy ask but it is the right thing to do.