Eastern Conference race heats up

As we enter the final 5 games of the season, the Eastern Conference remains tightly packed from second all the way down to ninth, with just 18 points separating Nashville SC and the New York Red Bulls, who are just 1 point from a playoff spot.

Every team in the hunt has a similar schedule, playing a game or two against bottom feeders Toronto, FC Cincinnati or Inter Miami, and the others against fellow playoff hopefuls.

As a result, no team is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs outside of the clinched New England Revolution, as each of the challenging nine or so teams will be facing proverbial six pointers on a weekly basis.

Going into the midweek matches, Conference winners New England Revolution has the best odds by far to lift the cup at +450, second Nashville SC at +1000, with NYCFC at +1100, Orlando City at +1400, and Philadelphia at +2000.

Here is how the table looks going into the midweek fixtures, the opponent’s each team has left, and their outlook:

1. New England Revolution – 66 pts – @DC, @Orlando, Colorado, Miami
   • The playoffs are already confirmed for New England, as a Supporters’ Shield win nears as well. The only thing left to play for down the stretch is breaking the single season points record in MLS (72). They have four games to get at least six points. That falls into the range of “doable” for the best team in MLS this season.
2. Nashville SC – 48 pts – Columbus, @Philadelphia, @Cincinnati, @Orlando, Red Bulls
   • Nashville has an 8 point lead on the 8th placed team, NYCFC. Even in the chance that one of the three teams looking in from the outside gain 10 points in the last five (a very impressive 2 points per game), Nashville has five teams below them that can drop off. The priority now is to retain second place, which is two guaranteed home playoff games. Form isn’t on Nashville’s side, with just one win in six games. The one thing on Nashville’s side in this stretch (outside of a favorable match against Cincinnati) is how hard they are to beat. In that six game stretch, they lost only once, and have just 3 losses on the season with 15 draws.
3. Philadelphia Union – 46 pts – @Minnesota, Nashville, @Toronto, Cincinnati, @NYCFC
   • Philadelphia has hit a rich vein after a tough summer saw them drop from second to eighth in the conference. No losses in six games with 14 points was enough to push the Union back into a home playoff spot, spurred on after losing in the CONCACAF Champions League semi finals. A few rough road games remain for Philly, including ones into Canada, Minnesota and Yankee Stadium. The benefit is two games against Wooden Spoon contenders Cincinnati and Toronto should yield at least four points for Philadelphia. Those games could help keep the Union in the race for second place, but the game against Nashville could be the deciding factor on who gets that spot.
4. Orlando City SC – 45 pts – Montreal, New England, @Columbus, Nashville, @ Montreal
   • Orlando has no easy games in this final stretch, but are buoyed by three home games out of five. Game’s against the first and second placed team in the conference will make points difficult to come by, especially at home. Orlando picked up a win last week against D.C. United, but that was the only one of two wins in the past seven games for the Lions (7 points in that time). Orlando will have to hope these two wins ignite some form going into a match against Montreal, who defeated Orlando 4-2 at Exploria Stadium the last time these teams met.
5. Atlanta United – 42 pts – NYCFC, Miami, Toronto, @Red Bulls, @Cincinnati
   • All of Atlanta’s remaining fixtures are against teams below the playoff line, with three against teams with no playoff aspirations. Given the team’s performances since Gonzalo Pineda took over, if Atlanta were to miss the playoffs it would be a massive surprise. They should even be favorites for a home playoff game at this point.
6. D.C. United – 41 pts – New England, @NYCFC, Red Bulls, Columbus, @Toronto
   • A strong push throughout the summer has put D.C. in a decent spot to qualify for the playoffs, but the fall seems to be where D.C. could begin to stagnate. Seven points from the past five games isn’t terrible, but losses versus Orlando and Atlanta made it difficult to gain ground on the southerners. D.C. still has to play both New York teams, including one in Yankee Stadium. Those two games will be the ones to dictate where D.C. finishes. A loss to either team is a chance to be leapfrogged, a draw keeps the status-quo, and a win could secure a playoff spot. It depends whether or not D.C. can pick up points v.s New England first, which could drop them out of the race should things go poorly.
7. CF Montreal- 41 pts – @Orlando, @Toronto, @Red Bull, Houston, Orlando
   • An upcoming road trip could put Montreal in the hot seat as they hold just a one points lead over two playoff hopefuls in New York. The two matches in Orlando could give the Canadian side a chance to catch the Florida outfit who has a five point lead currently. A loss in New York against the Red Bulls would be massively detrimental, however. Montreal will need to pick up at least eight points down the stretch to stay in contention.
8. NYCFC – 40 pts – @Atlanta, DC United, Chicago, @Miami, Philadelphia
   • Things are not going well for NYC at the moment, as the Pigeons have not scored in 419 minutes as they are plummeting down the table. A loss in Atlanta midweek would spell disaster for New York City’s chance to qualify for a playoff spot, but it doesn’t necessarily end things. NYCFC still has two games against bottom tier opponents, as well as one against D.C. at home, whom NYC is just one point behind. The last match against Philly will likely be a decider for whether NYCFC gets a playoff spot or not.
9. New York Red Bulls – 40 pts – @Columbus, @DC, Montreal, Atlanta, @Nashville
   • This is the hot team in the east right now, sitting in a lowly 9th place! a whopping 17 points in seven games put the Red Bulls from Wooden Spoon contenders to playoff contenders. Matches against Montreal and D.C. give the Red Bulls a great chance to jump the teams just one point ahead, though they’ll have to do work at Columbus first, who is also making a late playoff push. Two matches against strong southern opponents mark a very difficult end to the season, one that would be massively disappointing if the Red Bulls were to break a 12 season playoff streak.
10. Columbus Crew – 37 pts – @Nashville, Red Bulls, Orlando, @D.C., Chicago
    • A late push for the MLS Cup holders might not be enough, though the Crew has an impressive 10 points in the last five matches. Four straight matches against teams above them offers a good, albeit difficult chance for Columbus to try and gain ground on the competition. An easy final match against rivals Chicago would be a juicy one, should Columbus get into a position where they could be in touching distance of a playoff spot.