Who said that soccer isn’t a bit predictable?
After spending a year trying to overcome a difficult two game series against the New York Red Bulls D.C. United is back in exactly the same position as they were in 2014. But this time there is a slight wrinkle. Down a goal in the Eastern Conference Semifinals United will need to go on the road to Red Bull Arena and defeat their bitter rivals if they want to continue on in the 2015 Major League Soccer Cup Playoffs (3pm EST ESPN).
D.C. find themselves in this position after having given up a late goal to Red Bulls midfielder Dax McCarty in last Sunday’s match. Given the league’s road goal rules during the playoffs that makes the task all the more difficult.
Although one could look at the one goal difference as not that large the Red Bulls have proven to be a very difficult squad to break down at home. The club has allowed just 13 of their 43 goals at home this season a number which if one takes out the 5-2 loss to Orlando City SC in August looks even scarier. D.C. has also had trouble going north on the I-95 this season ; the team has been outscored this season 5-0 in their previous two trips to Red Bull Arena.
The good news is for United is that the Red Bulls center-back Damian Perinnelle (27 starts in 2015) will be out for the rest of the playoffs after tearing his ACL during last week’s match. His replacement, Ronald Zubar, showed last week that he sometimes lacks discipline and that he will get out of position at times. That might not seem like the biggest crack in the Red Bulls starting eleven but it could provide an area that United forwards Fabian Espindola and Chris Rolfe could expose.
The key will be if the Red Bulls can continue to disrupt the passing routines of D.C. In last Sunday’s match United’s passing accuracy was at just 53 percent, the third lowest for any playoff team in MLS playoff history. Although D.C. were often their own worst enemy, credit should also be given to New York midfielders Dax McCarty and Felipe. The duo swarmed the D.C. midfield giving them little opportunities to use their speed on the outside to change the field of possession.
Injuries may also affect United coach Ben Olsen game-plan. Although the club will get back center-back Bobby Boswell from suspension, right-back Sean Franklin (ankle) and midfielder Chris Pontius (hamstring) are game-time decisions. Both Franklin and Pontius add pace on the outside and their absence would limit D.C.’s abilities on the counter-attack. Look for Kofi Opare and Alvaro Saborio to take their place in the starting lineup should they not be able to go. Saborio’s addition would force Rolfe into the midfield which in Olsen’s 4-4-2 is not always his strong suit.
Whomever starts along D.C.’s back four will need to find a way to stop Loyd Sam. Sam’s pace down the left flank helped the Red Bulls keep the pressure on D.C.’s defense for large portions of the match. Look for Sam to try and link up with Mike Grella on to cripple D.C. Grella nearly added a second against D.C. last week and made several strong diagonal runs into United’s box. United defensive-midfielder Markus Halsti has to do better at tracking Grella to keep this game close.
Much of this match will depend on the first fifteen minutes. If D.C. can either score or create some good opportunities then the complexion of this match completely changes. But D.C. have had troubles with holding opponents during the early portions of matches during the 2015 season. That coupled with New York’s prolific scoring rate (62 goals-most in MLS) puts United at a disadvantage.
