WASHINGTON D.C. 10/28/2015- D.C. United midfielders Nick De Leon and Chris ROlfe embrace after securing a late win against the New England Revolution (photo credit: Jennifer Jordan-Harrell photography)
At this point you already know what is about to happen. Every year, Prost Amerika likes to start the 2016 Major League Soccer season with three hopes and a fear. We go to the In and Out Burger, we have a few beers, we have a few laughs, and fuck it we bowl. Oh wait, that is only partially true: the other part is from the Big Lebowski.
Nonetheless it is a great chance to pontificate, to swift one’s D.C. Brau on one’s philosopher’s stone and come up with predictions. Given that D.C. United has already played three matches (two CONCACAF Champions League matches and one regular season match against Los Angeles Galaxy) it seems odd to put out a preview.
Here is the thing: the MLS season is incredibly long. The sheer number of twists and turns and the slow plodding nature of the calendar makes it feel more like a trip from Winterfell to Westeross. There are plenty of peaks and valleys and very little is known at the start of the journey.
So while D.C. United may have had three matches very little is known about this team. That may seem a bit puzzling given that the club has brought back most of the same players from their 2015 squad and that the team has made the playoffs for two consecutive seasons.
But this is an interesting time for the Eastern Conference. With sides now stockpiling young, exciting European and South American players and the rise of youth academies the rest of the East seems to be catching up to United. United’s formula of picking up veteran MLS players on the waiver and trade market has proven successful over the past two seasons. But whether that model is outdated is something that supporters will find out during the 2016 season.
On to the predictions…
D.C. United forward Fabian Espindola challenging Colorado Rapids defender Maynor Figueroa (Photo Credit: Corbin Elliott)
Hope #1 That Fabian Espindola can stay on the pitch
2015 was a down season for Espindola with the Argentine producing just five goals and seven assists in 2015. Those numbers were down from his 2014 campaign which saw him score 11 goals and tally 9 assists. Espindola’s decline was a large reason for the team’s struggles to find the back of the net, particularly late in the season (45 goals in 2015, 52 goals in 2014).
The biggest reason for his drop-off was his lack of game time. Espindola missed the first six matches of the 2015 season due to a suspension and he suffered a knee injury in May that required him to take off an additional six matches. When D.C. had Espindola they were 9-6-2. Without him the club sunk to a record of 6-7-4.
Keeping healthy may be a bit difficult but keeping on the right side of the match officials is not. Espindola has a history making rash decisions and getting upset at players and officials. Given this club’s issues up top it might be a good idea for Espindola to let cooler heads prevail.
Hope #2: That Luciano Acosta can buck the trend of bad international players
There are some clubs that are able to go into the international market, find young or interesting players of some repute, sign them, and get the most out of them. Then there is D.C. United. While other clubs have had success finding quality talent abroad D.C. United has not. Players entering the friendly confines of RFK Stadium have either never panned out (Rafael, Hamdi Salahi) or suffered injuries that hampered their chances (Marcelo Gallardo, Branko Boskovic). Only former Golden Boot winner Luciano Emilio can be considered a success and even his success was fleeting.
Perhaps hoping that they could strike twice with a player named Luciano United picked up Luciano Acosta from Boca Juniors on loan this offseason. Although he has a slight frame, he has shown in his limited appearances that he does possess speed and has a good first touch. D.C. has lacked the type of talent for years that can slip in behind defenders and create chaos for goalkeepers. Espindola and Chris Rolfe have that same level of creativity but both are over 30.
The hope with Acosta is that he, along with Miguel Aguilar, can be the spark plugs that D.C. has lacked in the playoffs. United run a very basic 4-4-2 which is fine when playing against sides with young or inexperienced back fours. But against the likes of the New York Red Bulls who feature experienced sides they broken down and defeated with relative ease. If Acosta can throw opponents a curveball then he might have the chance to truly change things for D.C.
Jennifer Jordan-Harrell Photography
Hope #3: That Bill Hamid is not D.C. United’s only weapon.
Bill Hamid has been the rock of United. Whenever the club needed to be bailed out of a bad situation Hamid was almost always there for the big save or the timely clear. Over the past two seasons he has quietly amassed an impressive series of statistics that show why he is considered to be one of the top goalkeepers in the league (55 starts, 211 saves, 63 goals allowed). But D.C. will be without Hamid for the first few months of the season after undergoing knee surgery.
The fear has always been that without Hamid that United would collapse on itself. While it is certainly true that Hamid is a very important piece of this squad he is not the only piece to this squad. United management have quietly developed a steady defensive back four in Sean Franklin, Bobby Boswell, Steve Birnbaum, and Taylor Kemp. Combined the four have averaged 24 starts a season over the past two seasons. That level of stability should help Andrew Dykstra hold the fort until Hamid’s return.
Their is also hope up top with the additions of Patrick Nyarko and Lamar Neagle providing D.C. with two experienced wingers that can help lead the attack from a defensive position. Perry Kitchen to Hearts and the retirement of Davy Arnaud changes things in the defensive midfield but may end up being a positive if Markus Halsti can continue to improve upon his late season form.
So not all hope is lost for D.C. with Hamid’s injury. This is a very experienced side that should be able to weather this early storm.
The Fear: That this might be United’s last chance for a title.
For the past two seasons, United has been one of the top sides in Major League Soccer. Although they did experience a drop in form late last season the club still showed enough across the entire campaign that they could play at a high level. But how much longer can they continue to do this?
Although the average age of United’s roster is 26.6 years eight of their players are over the age of 30 (defender Bobby Boswell, goalkeeper Andrew Dykstra, forward Fabian Espindola, defender Sean Franklin, midfielder Markus Halsti, midfielder Patrick Nyarko, forward Alvaro Saborio, and midfielder Marcelo Sarvas). Considering that six of those players started against the Galaxy last week that should give some level of indication that D.C. is in win now mode.
This is a very unique time for the club. With their new stadium still set to be open in 2018 one might expect the club to use this season and next to build towards then. But given the club’s age and their experience over the past two years it is clear that they are not in rebuilding mode. Finding that balance of building for tomorrow and but being prepared for this season is a challenge.
In the end United has to think long-term. The club likely does not have the pieces or the resources to compete against the likes of the Galaxy or the Seattle Sounders for the MLS Cup. But that doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Finding the right players and grooming younger players for starting positions during a playoff run might be just what the doctor ordered for D.C. in 2016. Perhaps the club will win a trophy. But perhaps 2016 would be better remembered as the season that helped lead the club to greater glory in the year’s ahead.
