By Steven Agen
The Euro 2016 Quarterfinals conclude on Sunday as hosts France take on Iceland. The match up, on its surface, appears to be one of the most mismatched in tournament history. France, two-time European Championship winners at the 17th-ranked side in the world, are huge favorites against the island nation inhabited by a mere 330,000 people. Not only are Iceland making their first appearance in a major tournament at Euro 2016, it’s also their first foray into knockout round football as well. The signs all seem to point to one conclusion, but is there hope for a second shock semifinalist after Wales’ upset over Belgium? Perhaps there are a few reasons to think so.
1. Pressure on France
Les Bleus won their group en route to the Round of 16, but didn’t always look convincing doing it. Romania gave them all they could handle before Dimitri Payet won the match for them late on in their opener, and the road didn’t get much smoother from there. A 2-0 win over Albania put France through to the knockout stages in their next match, but it took 90 minutes for them to find their first goal. Just as in the match against Romania, the French crowd began to get restless with the team; both matches highlighted the nerves the French players get when things aren’t going their way.
A draw with Switzerland in their final group stage game assured them of top spot in Group A, but the critics weren’t satisfied with that performance either. Even as France advanced past Ireland in their Round of 16 game, they trailed for a period of the match and required the heroics of Antoine Griezmann and his second half brace to do so.
In short, France simply haven’t clicked yet, despite their host nation status. The sense is there that France rode their luck to several of the results they garnered. In major international football tournaments, a side can only ride their luck so far. Whether it’s on Sunday or in the semifinals next week, France will have to step it up a notch to win the tournament.
Until they do so, it’s a sign that Iceland’s Cinderella run may have some legs left in it.
2. Wales in the semifinals – Why not Iceland too?
Euro 2016 has been the oddest tournament any of us have seen in a long while. Five different sides made their Euro debut while two more made only their second appearance. Remarkably three of them made the knockout stages, defying all expectations in Wales, Northern Ireland, and Slovakia respectively.
Wales, naturally, have been the biggest shock so far. Aided by a lopsided bracket in the new 24-team format (also a first in this tournament) Gareth Bale and his fellow countrymen have taken Euro 2016 by storm. They finished first in Group B, over the likes of England and Slovakia. They felled Northern Ireland in the Round of 16, and then dumped a heavily favored Belgium side of the competition in the Quarterfinals. That earned them a Semifinal date with Portugal. It’s their best result in a major tournament since the 1956 World Cup.
The zany, unpredictable run of the Welsh has been slightly overshadowed this June, even with that crazy stat about the 1956 World Cup floating around.
They’d be the story of the tournament, if it weren’t for Iceland’s similarly remarkable run through a group containing Portugal, Austria and Hungary, followed by a scalp of England. So, in a tournament full of shocks and surprises, an Iceland upset over France just feels downright possible. It’s a crazy year – extraordinary moments may well keep popping up, and this extraordinary moment happens to be one that virtually the whole planet is pulling for.
3. The Long Throw
Forget all of the history, the dichotomy, between France’s success in football and Iceland’s for a moment. Forget about the quality of France’s attack, the pro-France crowd at Stade de France, and what the oddsmakers say.
Instead, focus for just a moment on one aspect of Iceland’s game that has carried them this far – the long throw in. It’s not Rory Delap at Stoke City, but it’s been awfully effective for the world’s 34th-ranked side. It got them back into the game against England after Wayne Rooney scored an early penalty in the Round of 16, and a separate goal off the psuedo-set piece helped to just get Iceland to that point.
France have all the talent and attacking prowess to score a bunch of times on Sunday, as everyone knows. More worryingly for Iceland, they have a stout back line that has allowed a mere two goals this tournament.
The long throw is vitally important to Iceland for this specific reason. If they find themselves pinned back by an impressive French attack and have trouble making any headway going forward, they still have a quick avenue to a goal if they need one. The long throw can hit France at any time, regardless of how Iceland are performing or what the run of play looks like.
It means Iceland only need one moment to keep on shocking in the world.
The vast majority of that world will be rooting for them to do so.
EURO2016
