Borchers with the goal to give Portland the 1-0 lead in the last encounter between the clubs, a 2-1 Vancouver victory.
Glory, glory what a day for a match! Although the likelihood is low that any Heinekens will be popped at Providence Park on Sunday when the Portland Timbers play host to the Vancouver Whitecaps all of the other pomp and circumstance for derby day will certainly be on display. Giant tifos with ironic statements will be raised, songs will be sung, and hopefully goals will be scored. But who will win?
At this point the narrative is rather clear with these two sides, but for those are reading about this rivalry for the first time: the Portland Timbers and Vancouver Whitecaps make up two thirds of the league’s oldest rivalry in the Cascadia Cup (the other team being the Seattle Sounders FC). The rivalry dates back to 1975 BG (Before Garber), and although this particular leg of the cup does not have the spite or vitriol that Portland-Seattle or Seattle-Vancouver does (geography may play a part due to this being the longest leg for supporters to travel) it still has its moments.
The rivalry seems to have kept alive in recent years due to the Caps’ ability to get points in Portland. Although Portland has the all-time head-to-head advantage at home against Vancouver, the Caps have nicked off points in four of the past five matches at Providence Park (1-1-3, 5 points). Even during last year’s Western Conference Semifinals the club was able to engender a 0-0 draw despite it not being enough to advance. The Timbers have not beaten Vancouver at home since a 3-0 drubbing in September of 2014, something that will certainly weigh heavily on the minds of supporters as they enter the stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Waston with a challenge on Mattocks, the latter missing this contest to injury.
So too will the club’s recent run of form. The Timbers enter the match on a three gaming losing streak, one that actually started with a 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Caps earlier in May. Since then the club has slid down the standings, dropping all of the way down to ninth in the Western Conference standings (3-6-3, 20 points). Vancouver meanwhile have turned on the jets since their last encounter, ripping off three consecutive victories to inch closer to the top of the standings (6-5-2, 20 points).
As in their last encounter the result of this match will depend upon Portland’s ability to defend late in matches versus Vancouver finding their form in the second half. Despite an eight point difference in the standings, there is very little separating these clubs in terms of goals scored/goals allowed. Portland has a goal differential of minus five (17 goals scored, 22 allowed) while Vancouver has one of zero (20 goals scored, 20 allowed).
Where the difference comes in is how each club performs in the final quarter of the match. In their last three losses five of the six goals that Portland has conceded have come in the second half. Meanwhile 12 of the 20 goals the club has given up all season have come in the final forty-five with six coming in the final quarter of the match. Compare that to the Caps who have scored twelve of their twenty goals in the second half and a pattern starts to emerge.
The resolve of the Timbers defense will be tested again in this match. Although the Whitecaps will be without Masado Kudo (broken jaw,) coach Carl Robinson has an array of attacking talent at his disposal. Given his run of form in last Saturday’s 4-3 win over Toronto FC, look for Robinson to feature Erik Hurtado up top, either as a lone center forward or paired with Kekutah Manneh (3 goals, 2 assists in 2016). What ever the case, right-back Zarek Valentin and center-back Nat Borchers will have their hands full as Manneh likes to do most of his work on counter-attacks.
Luckily for the Timbers they will have plenty of goal-scoring chances. The Whitecaps defense will be without left-back Fraser Aird (yellow card accumulation) and is tied for having the second highest number of goals allowed in the league. Forward Fanendo Adi (8 goals in 2016) has really come into his own in 2016. In particular his relationship with Darligton Nagbe has helped lift the Timbers when it appeared all hope was lost in certain matches.
Adi left last week’s loss to NYCFC after straining a hamstring in the second half, but the injury was deemed not serious and he should at least be an option off the bench if not starting. More serious concerns for Portland are the continued absence of Alvas Powell and Diego Chara, with former Whitecap Darren Mattocks also out of the picture while he recovers from a torn meniscus.
This match has all of the makings of being a high-scoring affair with the final fifteen minutes of the match proving to be the difference-maker. If the Timbers can hold off a late charge by the Whitecaps, then the club should feel confident in at least coming out of the match with the draw. However, their defense has to pull through in this match, otherwise this could be another difficult afternoon in Portland.
Chicago Fire
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