The hinrunde is over, the German word for the first half of the season, 16 matches in and yet again Bayern Munich leads the pack. However, there are some surprise packages and story lines in the Bundesliga.
RB Leipzig Is New Top Dog
When you spend millions of Euros you tend to get noticed and have mountains of expections.
When it comes to Red Bull Leipzig it is different, especially when you are receiving funding from a soft drink company as opposed to paying members.
And yet in the non-German media they are the darlings of the Bundesliga, the team who won promotion and finds themselves three points behind Bayern after a great start in the hinrunde.
While American Terrance Boyd has not yet featured, Scandinavian stars Yussuf Poulsen and Emil Forsberg have. Timo Werner was a big signing along with Naby Keita, and though these young and hungry professionals are suddenly able to take to Ralph Hassenhutl’s pressing tactics.
Hassenhutl, who’s name translates to rabbit’s hut in English, came from FC Ingolstadt after leading the debutante club to a mid table finish while not spending a great deal of money. Now with better players and a very lucritave budget he is scaring the Bundesliga, not just by what his team is able to do, but considering their youth in what they represent.
Like it or hate it RB Leipzig is here to stay and their massive gates say that their fans are already thinking about playing the big European sides next season.
Seven Firings, What’s Going on?
With the new Bundesliga TV deal coming, which will increase money to clubs exponentially to the point that the league is arguably now far and away the second best in the world. Bested only now by the English Premier League.
When the clubs could gain that money that rapidly, the results are we will see managers getting cut much faster than you would normally.
Each of the northern chaos clubs, HSV and Werder Bremen, are doing what they do when they have a few bad matches; its fire their manager. Each club has faced difficult seasons for what seams years, and when you are as big as each are it is rather sobering when you consider as recent as six years ago each club had participated in a UEFA Cup Semifinal. What is now known as the Europa League.
Wolfsburg is different. Funded by Volkswagen, who have their own issues, are being told they will get a 30% cut in funding along with the fact that the large amount of money being spent on the club that has been the definition of underperforming. With troublemaker Julian Draxler out to PSG for a hefty fee of over 35 million, and a pair of wins to end the hinrunde, there might be peace and quiet for new manager Valerien Ismael. But perhaps he only has a few matches to prove himself before getting his marching orders too.
Darmstadt, Ingolstadt, and Augsburg are small clubs. Each has punched above their weight and each lost their manager at the end of the season because they did so well, Darmstadt losing theirs to Augsburg. But each have made a change, because if the gravy train of the TV money is to end with relegation, there is no certainty that they would bounce back immediately (see FC Nurnberg and 1860 Munich). Specifically for Darmstadt and Ingolstadt both are smaller clubs than quite a few teams that are divisions below them in the football pyramid. Darmstadt has used most of their money to rebuild their stadium and if the money isn’t there the fans aren’t and so they deal with financial losses.
Borussia Monchengladbach has been a disaster since losing to Schalke 4-0 at the beginning of October. Gone is the invincibility of Borussia Park. So is Andre Schubert. BMG had a golden opportunity in the tough Champions League group when after three matches, and only one at home, they were in second and yet they came very close to not even making the Europa League at the end. Add in the fact that the club dropped points time and time again due to not finishing scoring opportunities which were not the issue last campaign. Now a relegation fighter is in to attempt to put out the flames.
Shocking European Contenders
RB Leipzig aside, two traditionsverein teams in FC Koln and Eintracht Frankfurt, after years of instability, find themselves near the top at the half way point.
FC Koln, with Peter Stoger at the helm, has been inching themselves up the table bit by bit for the last few seasons. Eintracht Frankfurt are shockers with only surviving relegation last season via the playoffs with Niko Kovac.
Stoger has a team that has played together and has been bringing in new pieces one at a time. Continuity has been key and the fact that Anthony Modeste has been a goal machine has been a big part of the engine pushing on the Billy Goats.
Eintracht Frankfurt has found key difference makers in players who were believed flops. Marco Fabian had many difficulties adapting to life and playing style in the Bunesliga and David Abraham was a poor decision a match equaling in goal opportunities. Each has found their rhythm and now are massive contributes in the squad’s renaissance.
Problem with their fight to continue this upward trajectory is FC Koln is fighting a massive injury crisis in losing key players to long term injuries. Eintracht Frankfurt have their own injury issues but look to get a few pieces back after the winterpause. Their issue is that five players are on loan and chief among them in Jesus Vallejo have been so good that the parent club will be highly reluctant to give up their assets, that also considering that the club is in infrastructural transition and is lacking capital to reinvest.
Ruckrunde Predicitons
Champions: Bayern Munich, they might have turned the corner in finding their grove but despite Carlo Ancelotti playing a style that the players don’t like there will be fall off from RB Leipzig and little other challenge
Champions League teams 2-4: Borussia Dortmund will find their way into the top four while Hertha Berlin will not have the drop off they had last season and even if RB doesn’t have the same half season they are well placed to finish in Europe.
Europa League teams 5-7: Bayer Leverkusen is well placed enough to get back into Europe but not the big table they want, Eintracht Frankfurt and Hoffenheim continue their good season and play in Europe with a hunger for the next season.
Relegation 17-18 & Playoff: Darmstadt has hired an untested manager who had the skills but we will see what happens but then again without any players they are dead in the water. Borussia Monchengladbach have dug such a hole that they will again need to regroup, in the second division. Werder Bremen face the playoff that they escaped from in the last match of last year.
Bundesliga clubs in Europe: Schalke is best suited to raise a trophy in the Europa League and thereby earn a spot in next season Champions League. Dortmund and Munich can make it both to the semifinals and maybe the final for Bayern but no silverware.
