5 takeaways from the UK election

5 takeaways from the UK election:

Result:

It was a strange night in the UK with parties who won licking their wounds and parties who came second celebrating.

It’s hard to pick just five takeaways from it and there could easily have been ten. Omitted are how Brexit affected the vote, rather than how the vote affected Brexit, a look at the Liberal Democrats, the wipe out of moderates on both sides in Northern Ireland and the UKIP collapse.

So here goes:

1) Teresa May gambled and lost

Mrs May called an unnecessary election to strengthen her position from the 12 seat overall majority she had. Seeing Labour 24% behind in the polls she thought it would be a cake walk to win, especially with the press on her side who were sure to smear Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn on every occasion.

She has now lost that majority and will need the support of the pro-Brexit, anti-Catholic DUP to stay in power in an orange/blue coalition.

Her campaign was terrible with announcements that affected her base on social care and her refusal to appear in a leader’s debate, looking like cowardice. This was far from her image as the brave strong woman who would face down the EU leaders in negotiations.

Already the ultra self-absorbed Boris Johnson is already plotting her downfall. Look out for David Davis though, the highly capable true Brexiteer who may emerge as the anti-Boris candidate

With the start of the Brexit negotiation just ten days away, she is even weaker and her manoeuvre room at that table is minimal.

Her personal position is probably untenable in the long run and pundits are already saying another election may be inevitable, both for her leadership and in the country.

 

2) She’ll have a weaker hand in the Brexit talks

Mrs May’s electoral humiliation will be as warmly greeted as French President’s Emmanuel Macron’s victory in Brussels. Since the Brexit vote, every election result in Europe has swam the other way with either anti-racist or pro-EU candidates winning, for example in Austria, Netherlands, France, and now this.

She is going to have to make concessions as there is an anti-Brexit majority in Parliament, and even her new found coalition partners who support it, want to see exceptions made in and for Northern Ireland over a hard border.

As a result of Macron winning, the EU’s self esteem is sky high again. This is not a recipe for a fair fight. If it was possible for anything to make Brexit a bigger disaster than it already is, it happened last night.

Unless – that is – you always opposed it, and now cannot see a hard Brexit happening. There is no longer a majority for jumping off a cliff.

 

3) Who are her new friends, the DUP?

The Democratic  Unionist Party (DUP) are not the same establishment Unionists that have been traditional allies of the Tory Party, and governed Northern Ireland from its inception to UK direct rule in the 1970s. That party, the UUP, lost its last remaining seats yesterday as Ulster politics became even more polarised between extremes. (The moderate pro-Irish SDLP lost its remaining seats to the former gunmen of Sinn Fein on the other side).

The DUP began its life as a staunchly sectarian party with support from more religious rural areas for its toxic mix of sectarian bigotry, calling the Pope the antichrist, accusing British governments of selling out and Union Jack waving. (Think a bible in one hand and a Rangers scarf in the other).

They have smoothed over the religious aspect in recent years to win over working class loyalists these days but they remain the awkward squad who are highly suspicious of both London and Dublin – and especially Brussels. Yet they are also canny movers who will usually see the bigger picture when cutting deals, having dumped the more bible tinged aspects of their ideology. The days when their founder Rev. Ian Paisley nosily waved a bible at the Pope in the European Parliament are long gone. They managed to power share with Sinn Fein up until recently and they have a deeply pragmatic side beneath all the posturing.

Still they remain climate change deniers, opposed to gay marriage and anti-abortion. Middle England will not tolerate their influence in government for too long.

Yet the DUP do not want to see a hard border strung across the Irish border because of its effect on cross border commerce and that is a weak flank in May’s Brexit negotiating stance. A hard Brexit without exceptions is probably dead now, as is leaving without a deal at least without this government falling.

Bringing the DUP into government will also play havoc with the Irish peace process and remove the UK government’s role as an honest broker in that process. Some will say that risking peace in Ireland is too big a price to pay for keeping her in power after such a monumental miscalculation.

 

4) The rise of the Labour left

Jeremy Corbyn has had a good campaign, exceeding all expectations. However those expectations were of a total meltdown. He was repeatedly undermined by Blairites and rightists inside his own party who were praying for his defeat.

They are all pretending to be his mate now and sadly for them, no coup against him has any chance now. Corbyn campaigned with vigour and on a manifesto of popular centre left policies including some nationalisation and opposition to cuts that favour the wealthy.

Tory press attacks on him backfired and the attempt to link him to the Manchester bombings was especially a failure. If anyone had a poorer election than Mrs May, its the Tory papers at the more vitriolic end like the Mail and the Express.

Corbyn has given hope to socialism in the UK and within the Labour Party and increased the chances of the left winning that particular internal war. Because it was a late surge, many of the polls missed it. The upshot of young people registering to vote proved his calculation correct that you could exceed expectations by enlarging the electorate.

Yet – they are still celebrating a defeat, and celebrating avoiding a meltdown. It shows how far Labour have fallen since the days of Blair’s multiple victories that this is deemed a good result.

 

5) What happened in Scotland?

Result:

Anyone looking at the results will say the SNP had won. In fact, the SNP won their second best result ever in a Westminster election. They won an overall majority of Scottish seats with 35 out of 59, with the second place Tories holding 13.

But sadly for them, their second best result in Westminster history comes two years after their best, and their opponents are understandably crowing as the Nationalists lost 21 seats including big names like Alex Salmond ans Angus Robertson.

Why did it happen?

There was a significant degree of tactical voting encouraged, mostly by Labour activists, to urge their voters to oppose the SNP and vote Tory where that would defeat the SNP. Labour’s vice-chair in Stirling for example urged a Tory vote. The Tories won the Stirling seat. There was widespread press coverage of Labour quietly moving their activists out of seats to allow a Unionist vote to get behind the Tories. Ironically the 6-7 extra seats this may have gained the Tories, may have cost Labour its chance at power. No-one stabbed Corbyn in the back more than Scottish Labour’s leadership.

That wasn’t the sole factor in the SNP drop. The SNP’s 10 years in government in the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh gave them a record to have to defend, opposition to a second independence referendum motivated their opponents to turn out, and they run a lacklustre campaign with none of the fresh pzazz Corbyn brought to the UK election.

They also suffered from the late Corbyn surge prevalent in the UK which may have masked just how far their regular voters switched to the Tories in several key seats.