So the story begins. The curtain drops on the 2015 MLS Cup Championship during the season-opener.
“We strive to be a model of excellence on and off the field every year, let alone in a season where we’re following an MLS Cup. And it’s not that tough to make playoffs in Major League Soccer right now. We should be a playoff team every year. It’s very disappointing and really unacceptable.” –Merritt Paulson, Owner and Chief Executive Officer
Before every Timbers match in 2016, the stadium’s PA system would play “In the Air Tonight” from Phil Collins’s 1981 album, Face Value. Looking back at 2016 the much less heralded “I Missed Again” would have been far more appropriate as the Timbers failed to to make the playoffs in their title defense becoming only the third team to do some in the league’s 20 year history.
This fate with which the organization and it’s fan base is resigned to know seemed impossible if you are to go back a long time ago in a galaxy not so far away, Just back to that warmer-than-usual March afternoon when the Timbers were hosting Columbus on what would be one of 16 nationally televised matches.
It wasn’t always called Providence Park and the Timbers weren’t always plying their trade in MLS, but there was at least one constant: You need to go back to May of 2003 for the last time Portland lost a home-opener. (There must be something special about Portland and home openers: The Portland Trail Blazers have won 16 consecutive home openers).
Portland would prevail with the same 2-1 scoreline from December seeming to further justify the MLS Cup the Timbers had won just three months prior. That home-opening streak remained intact was but one of the many causes for optimism that fine, Spring day.
“We showed today we picked up right where we left off at the end of the year,” Timbers Head Coach Caleb Porter beamed in his post-match remarks making a point to add, “Last year wasn’t an anomaly.”
Porter addressing the media following Portland’s exit from CONCACAF Champions League play.
Some seven-and-a-half months later, it feels a lot more of an anomaly as the Timbers missed the playoffs by a point for the second time in three years.
The 4-1 defeat to Vancouver officially ended the Timbers Cup defense. That it occurred four short days after falling out of CONCACAF didn’t lessen the pain. With the lopsided loss to the Whitecaps, Vancouver was able to pluck the Cascadia Cup from Portland’s, as it were, cold, dead hands.
Salt, meet wound.
Terms like “disappointed”, “vulnerable”, and “soul searching” were littered throughout Porter’s post-match remarks in Vancouver. But was Porter surprised? Not necessarily. After stating flatly that Portland “didn’t play or defend well”, Porter let these words hang in the air: “I felt we got some surprisingly poor performances out of some of our key guys.”
“On Wednesday, Adi, Valeri out and when we needed some of our depth to step up and get the job done,” Porter continued. “This game (Vancouver), Chara and Ridgewell out, we needed our depth to step up and get the job done and they didn’t.”
“Four or five weeks ago I basically said, ‘This is our top lineup,’ and we played that lineup three times and won all three games. The other three games we weren’t able to play our top lineup and we lost. So, what do you blame it on? Do you blame it on injuries? I blame it on depth because, ultimately, you have to have a good enough bench to get the job done, regardless of injuries, and I think Wednesday and today is a bit of the story of the season.”
There’s good reason to speculate that Porter is referring to Lucas Melano, the DP striker who didn’t start in the aforementioned “top lineup.” I remain steadfast it was a revelation seeing Melano playing up top on Wednesday, but that is a discussion for another day.
Regardless, changes are coming, Porter promises, and the work has begun already. Most of it, undoubtedly, will be under the radar, until a cavalcade of transactions is revealed on the Monday following MLS Cup.
For the first time in his Portland career, Valeri would finish with more goals (14) than assists (7) as the team relied on him more than they ever had before.
How did we get to here?
It wasn’t injuries. Valeri and Adi missed four starts apiece and, as Porter says, they are part of the game: ”Everybody gets them. If you don’t have depth that can get the job done when called upon, you’re going to struggle to win games.”
That’s not to diminish how hard it was to replace Nat Borchers on defense. Steven Taylor was a reasonable replacement considering how late in the game he came on. His man marking was above average and added some aerial pop to the set-piece game.
More damaging was the inability to get the left back spot nailed down. Vytas seems to be a very good fit however he was one of five players who got plugged into that role over the course of the season. Porter toyed with shifting Ridgewell to left back, at one point. Not all that far fetched when you consider that was his primary position he played this past Winter while on loan to Brighton & Hove Albion.
Regardless, the focus of the 2014 off-season was to bolster Portland’s defense. Two years later, the team has gone full circle. Porter sums it up thusly: “Defensively, we’ve not been good enough, absolutely not.”
Jake Gleeson had more saves than any other keeper, despite playing in only 28 games. On its face, that sounds like an accomplishment. The reality is only three other teams faced more shots than the 491 allowed by the Timbers defense.
Facing so many shots, forcing so many saves meant the Timbers were often playing from behind. In previous years, Porter would say Portland was too dependent on Captain Comeback. In 2016, Captain Comeback was a no-show. Only Houston was worse than Portland’s 1-12-2 record after allowing the first goal.
Portland may have found a long term solution at left back in Vytas. A process that took four previous players and 24 matches.
Following the Timbers loss in Seattle, Porter would remark: “If we score the first goal, we go up and the game is different.” The quote is somewhat taken out of context, but it does make a valid point and encapsulates so many of the problems that would beleaguer Portland in 2016. Portland had five points in the 15 games in which they surrendered the first goal; 39 points in the 19 games in which they did not.
Despite it all, Portland very nearly made history as the first MLS team to make the postseason despite being winless on the road. There’s really no getting around it. There are literally hundreds, if not thousands, of variables that go into each and every match. Luck was certainly a factor (such as a costly own goal in the 89th minute in New England). Turning just one road draw into a win would have tied Portland with RSL on points and into the playoffs on tiebreaker.
Who knows if it would have helped Portland but it does surprise and beguile that teams are forced to fly commercially. MLS remains the lone American league which prohibits teams from chartering their own flights.
The average team won just over three roads games this season. That certainly doesn’t acquit the Timbers, but it’s worthwhile to note other leagues where teams can coordinate their own travel and have nowhere near the distances, climate changes, and time zone shifts that are part-and-parcel of the experience of playing in a league that crisscrosses the United States and Canada. (For a more in-depth and nuanced report of this, I highly encourage you read this piece compiled by Kevin Baxter of the LA Times.)
Consistently inconsistent, Lucas Melano did not take the step forward many expected him to this year. Still a very young 23, Portland will need to decide if the DP is still worth the investment or is a sunk cost.
Then there is the question of DPs. Porter’s remarks on wing play (and previous decision to bench Lucas Melano at the half against Vancouver) seemed to suggest that patience with the midfielder had worn out. However remarks made by Merritt Paulson on the recent Timbers in 30 of needing to, “take a really hard look at the complacency question and the leadership question looking ahead,” suggest that Liam Ridgewell may not be secure in his role as well.
“We’re going to make darn well sure we resolve that and that doesn’t happen again.”
Events that transpired earlier this week resulting a mugshot from Clackamas County Jail certainly can’t be helping Ridgewell’s case.
Photos no coach or owner wants to see. Ridgewell and Gleeson, circa October 24th. Both players were released on bail. Photos courtesy Clackamas County Sheriff’s Office.
When things don’t go to plan, invariably, a scapegoat must be found. When you’re the defending champion and you failed to make the playoffs in a league where twelve of twenty teams make the postseason, there is plenty of blame to go around. But while players, the coaching staff, and front office all share in some culpability, Major League Soccer has done the Timbers no favors.
With the league commissioner and many owners hailing from the NFL, it should be no surprise that many of the guiding principles of MLS are based on the NFL with a specific emphasis on parity.
The idea that, come opening day, any team can win a cup is an appealing prospect for fans of all teams. But, like anything in life, a balance must be struck.
Jack Jewsbury addresses the crowd in what would be his final match at Providence Park.
American sports are the rare enterprise that reward failure. MLS hasn’t reached NBA levels of absurdity where teams lose intentionally to help their draft position, but teams who fail to reach the postseason do reap rewards such as better positions in the various and sundry MLS player acquisition apparatus and more allocation money.
When the Timbers won MLS Cup they were at a disadvantage coming into 2016. While much of the league were in the offseason last November, the Timbers continued to play some six weeks and change later, with training camp five weeks later.
As the Timbers rolled through the playoffs, players were rewarded (deservedly) with playoff bonuses. Bonuses that counted against the Timbers 2016 salary cap.
According to the league’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the MLS salary cap for the 2016 season was $3.6 million. According to data released by the MLS Players Union, the Timbers payroll (including bonuses) in May was $5.6 million*.
Some skepticism should be exercised here. “Baloney” is one of the kinder words Paulson has had for these figures and he should know, since he’s the one signing the checks.
Fanendo Adi said he was “frustrated” this summer as rumors of him desiring a move abroad came to light. Portland stated they have no plans to move him, it raised eyebrows when he missed the team flight to Seattle in August.
As Major League Soccer continues to be the only major sports league in America that refuses to release financial information in an era that just witnessed “Too Big to Fail” become a household phrase, the league’s dogged refusal to show the slightest bit of financial transparency is, frankly, silly for a league that aims to a “top league” in the world six years from now.
The financial ramparts of an extended playoff run won’t be an issue for the Timbers as they prepare for the three possibilities of team-building for 2017: reload, reduce, or keep it the same.
Keeping the Timbers as they are presently constituted is simply not an option. Given the remarks from ⅔ of the Timbers front office triumvirate, we can safely extinguish that possibility immediately. Despite a reputation for contrarian thinking, rebuilding is simply not a part of the Timbers DNA.
It’s going to be a longer off-season, but that does not make it a quiet one. There will be plenty of conversations and maneuvers over the coming months. As many as seven Timbers who started in the season opener back in March will be no longer be with the club when the team resumes play in 2017.
In his final media appearance in 2014, Porter said that he “would not be satisfied with getting close… Next year, falling short won’t be good enough.”
Two years later, Porter is saying the same things. If the upcoming off-season is anything like what followed the 2014 season, there’s good reason that the lingering melancholy will be short-lived.
That is the sort of optimism with which Timbers fans can cling to. After all, it was an even year.
* A couple of notes about the data. DP salaries (Lucas Melano, Diego Valeri, and Liam Ridgewell) cost $457,500 towards the cap. Thank you to the folks at Reddit MLS for making this information accessible and available. Did players who won the cup with Portland last year but are no longer with the club have bonuses count against the salary cap? If the salary cap is at $3.6m, why did the Timbers pay $5.6m? All great questions. I wish I knew.
