Expansion Sweepstakes and Pro/Rel

Major League Soccer Commissioner Don Garber, left, and Dr. Bill McGuire announce that Minnesota United FC will move to MLS at Target Field in Minneapolis on Wednesday, March 25, 2015. ] LEILA NAVIDI leila.navidi@startribune.com /

There is one indisputable measure of success for soccer in the United States–a lot of cities want to have top-flight soccer. Major League Soccer will be expanding into Atlanta, a second LA team, Minnesota, and Miami in the next couple of years and Commissioner Don Garber has indicated that the league may expand even further to 28 teams come 2020 with Sacramento and St. Louis as the front runners with Detroit, Cincinnati, San Diego, Austin, and San Antonio making cases for inclusion.

NASL Commissioner Bill Peterson

Meanwhile, in the North American Soccer League, they recently expanded into Miami, Oklahoma City, and Puerto Rico and plans to expand into San Francisco and (maybe) Chicago as it aspires to be a Division One league.

United Soccer Leagues has ballooned to 29 teams–11 of them are reserve squads of MLS teams. One of the newer clubs, FC Cincinnati, is making waves by drawing over 20,000 for a match at Nippert Stadium. All of this is on top of successes in places such as Indianapolis, Louisville, and Sacramento in the lower leagues and Detroit City FC averaging 6,000 in the NPSL. .

It seems that just about every major city in the United States wants in. However, not all of them will get into MLS and the NASL’s aspirations of being a top flight league somewhat clash with the reality that five of its teams play in stadia with a capacity of 10,000 or less. It is early days, but the current average attendance in the NASL after 20 matches is just 5,336 with Indy Eleven and the soon-to-be-departing Minnesota United FC as pace-setters.

The USL averages will be somewhat skewed with Cincinnati and Sacramento and the fact that 11 of the teams are MLS Reserve squads. That said, Louisville City FC, San Antonio FC, OKC Energy, and Saint Louis FC are all drawing respectable numbers for a Division Three league.

Atlanta soccer’s Arthur Blank with MLS Commissioner Don Garber.

At some point in time, US Soccer, MLS, NASL, and USL all need to come together in some way so the pyramid looks like a pyramid with ways up and down. The more cities that want top flight soccer, the more the case is being made for promotion and relegation (pro/rel for short). Obviously, it’s not going to happen in the short run and especially not as long as Sunil Gulati is President of US Soccer, Don Garber is MLS Commissioner, and the NASL has eyes on being Division One themselves. There’s also the argument that owners would not sign up for a franchise if they knew that there was the risk of being relegated down the line.

That said, expanding to 28 teams also presents a risk for MLS. Not the least of which is the prospect of the quality of play being diluted. There’s also the need to find the right ownership groups for these cities and that they have adequeate stadium plans. MLS also needs to demand stadium plans of New England and NYCFC the way they do of Minnesota, but that’s another discussion. It ultimately leads to an even more uneven level of play between the three professional leagues.

US Soccer, MLS, NASL, and USL must ultimately come together in the long term and institute pro/rel so that there is way for cities who miss out on MLS could one day play in the top flight at expense of the worst teams that are there already (hopefully not the Fire in the years ahead). You also could have the prospect of two Chicago teams in the top flight, San Jose vs. San Francisco, Cincinatti vs. Columbus, etc.

Consider this a pro argument for pro/rel somewhere down the line. Obviously, it’s not going to happen in the short term and not as long as the current powers that by are still in power. But ultimately, with so many cities that want in and in the top flight, pro/rel should at least be given a consideration for that the level of play within leagues and among the leagues is not jarringly uneven as one league eyes more expansion, another league eyes expansion and increased status, and a third league is already expanding with reserve squads.

Soccer is more popular now in this country than ever, but to at least preserve that popularity and to be mentioned in the same sentence as England, Germany, Spain, and Italy; fundamental changes to the structure of professional soccer will eventually need to be taken into consideration sometime down the line, especially with so many cities wanting in.